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Monday, March 9, 2020

5 G technologies for India
That Reliance Jio came out with its own 5G technology Link is highly significant for Indian manufacturing, "self-reliance", national security and affordable access to 5G for all. And Jio as a company is more than capable of cracking open the 5G market, of price-sensitive Indian consumers, with its market bursting offers. For all the reasons below other telcos must be wondering what has just hit them!!

India would like to be among the early technology adopters of 5G. But there are many hurdles. Almost all telcos apart from Jio are in losses, have hefty urgent liabilities and very large borrowings. These telcos would love to run 5G services, but they don't want risks nor to make significant investments from their side. They are lobbying Govt to sell 5G spectrum at knock-down prices to make 5G happen early and at competitive consumer prices. However, this is not likely given the legacy of the 2G scam, and the Govt's desire to not undersell public assets nor do away with open auctions. 

India does not have its own 5G technology, so domestic manufacturers will remain on the sidelines, whilst foreign rivals will only strengthen. Govt wouldn't sanction any deal that does not involve significant Make-in-India but they may subsidise manufacture in India. It will be a tussle of who garners the most benefit, the foreign suppliers or Indian companies. Foreign vendors also create security risks that have been highlighted by US intelligence.

Indian telcos have an invidious choice as there are few vendors and none is perfect. A foreign system involves a multi-year commitment and wholesale trust in a particular firm. The lock-in will make it costlier to keep up with the latest advances and it does not seem to translate into substantially lower consumer prices that currently prevail in 4G. The market uptake as such would be niche and not worthy of paying high spectrum charges.

Reliance Jio says it has, "developed everything on 5G, so we are totally self-sufficient.” It says its tech is "more scalable than other vendors" and it has its "own cloud-native platform." Put together, this gives Jio autonomy, flexibility, affordability and security. Reliance Jio says it has put forward its own system for the pre-launch 5G trials, and once successfully done, it can rapidly transition to manufacture in India via a third party. Jio can expand unhindered in sensitive areas like industrial internet of things, security and surveillance patrols by drones, and digitalising of agriculture. At the same time, it has a marketing plan for exploiting the high-end consumer market.

Sunday, March 8, 2020

Economic Times Global Business Summit


Vision for Port sectorthe creation of world-class infrastructure

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The Chintan Baithak meet in Mamallapuram discusses both challenges, and solutions to challenges faced by ports. The challenges are to strengthen Major Ports to directly compete with private ports, e-governance initiative to make ports faceless and paperless, developing India as ‘trans-shipment hub' and other aspects of Vision 2030.

Status of Major Ports, including innovations, were presented and areas requiring ministry interventions were put forward. Shipping minister resolved some issues and pledge full support. He asked Major Ports to follow the vision of ‘Smart, Sustainable and Safe Ports of India’. VP M Venkaiah Naidu stressed on the need to harness India's vast coastline for sustainable growth and development of the country.

He supported Sagamala project and said India has an excellent opportunity for port-led development as ports were vital means for exports and imports. Creation of world-class port infrastructure was necessary to bring all Indian ports on par with leading global ports, and for India to become a $5 trillion economy. Transshipment hubs would also be required on both coasts.

Further, he advised ports to adopt best practices to effectively utilise their financial resources for maximum benefit. To reduce logistics costs, ports should strife for energy- efficiency, lower dredging costs, digitisation and reduced human interface, and improved turn-around performances. Measures that are environment-friendly should be promoted to counter climate change, and CSR funds should take care of local communities and skill youth so they can grab job opportunities.

Renewable Energy
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The entire power requirement of all 12 Major ports will be met by solar and wind power via Green port initiative. It covers port operations and ships berthed there, which spew 10 times greater emissions than ports. Earlier, savings were made when grid power was connected to all berthed ships so ships' auxiliary power could be switched off. Major Ports are pursuing renewable energy and energy efficiency drive to meet tighter emission norms, and reduce cargo charges and shipping costs to increase traffic to the ports.

Environment-friendly Measures
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Major ports are combating dust pollution by environment-friendly technologies (eg closed conveyor system, mechanisation of bulk cargo handling). Recycling of Ships Act and the accession to IMO’s Hong Kong Convention makes India the prime destination for ship recycling and it expects to double volume by 2024.

Port connectivity incl National Grid for Ports
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At Oct 2019, only 44 out of 202 minor ports were functional. Under the National grid for ports, 100 minor ports would be renewed and integrated with nearby Major ports through improved connectivity. Port-led development would be stimulated further by establishing and integrating Inland waterways. This is based on a study that looked at the revival of each minor port, identifying the specific cargo linked to it and the downstream industry.

Over 235 port-connectivity projects (~ Rs. 235,000cr) have been identified under Sagarmala. These include multimodal hubs, Inland waterways (1st phase), pipelines for crude oil, refined petroleum products and natural gas, besides 91 roads and 83 rail projects incl. freight expressways, DFCs, major rail projects, and last-mile connectivity.
Major Port at Vadhavan
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In Feb 2020, Union Cabinet approved a new Major Port (Rs65,500cr, 10m TEU, JV JNPT/PPP) at Vadhavan, Maharashtra, complete with reclamation & excellent connectivity. Govt will have a 51+% share in the SPV through JNPT. SPV will develop infrastructure and all business activities will be handled by the private developer. Environmental (CRZ) clearances and concerns of opposition groups may be settled by reclamation of 570ha.

Centre is interested in developing Vadhavan as a Major port despite the environmental problems because JNPT has exhausted all scope for expansion. With completion of JNPT's terminal 4 in 2023, the capacity rises from 8m to 10m TEU. But the govt expects the containerised trade to double and cross 10m by 2022-25. It is banking on the major Make-in-India drive and value addition that favours containerisation. After Vadhavan is completed by 2025, JNPT will be in the top 10 ports with the largest capacity.

Minister of shipping explains eg, "While the ports in the country are able to handle the largest sea-going vessels in the world for liquid cargo, including POL and bulk cargo, there is an inadequacy in India’s ability to handle and receive ever-increasing large containerised ships. This can be attributed to non-availability of deep-draft ports."

Vadhavan Port is a gamechanger for the West Coast, due to the 20m draft, its huge capacity, and a very well-connected and vast hinterland. With a natural draught of 20m close to the shore, it is able to accommodate mega-vessels with 15,000 to 25,000 TEU, without expensive dredging. Most full-loaded shipments will then call directly at Vadhavan and avoid costly transshipment elsewhere. In contrast, the present situation is thus: "JNPT has a draught of 15 m which is grossly insufficient to handle vessels above 10,000 TEU. Mundra, farther north in Gujarat, has a maximum draught of 16 m and can handle only mid-size container ships. This discourages mainline operators from sending their latest-generation container vessels to India."

New Transshipment Ports
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India's desire to become a manufacturing hub and engage strongly in world trade gives the necessary push to develop world-class ports. Sagarmala project looked at the optimal distribution of ports for Indian needs and realised that while other nations' ports had mushroomed, they made Indian trade more expensive and jeopardised India's strategic interests.
Vizhinjam port due for completion in 2020-21, is a transshipment port located near the southern tip of Kerala. Not only is it ideally located, but as a private port, it is best placed to seriously challenge Colombo port on costs, operational efficiencies and trading volumes. Vizhinjam port is one of many initiatives to secure dominance of India in IOR and help counter China’s Maritime Silk Route.

Andaman and Nicobar Islands are in a very strategic location in the Bay of Bengal and also closest to international shipping lanes. The Nicobar Islands have a natural depth, which with a proposed investment of $1 billion, can develop into a stopover port for big containers. India is also interested in ship-to-ship transshipment of containers and port-led trade in nearby population centres.

Proposed Colachel port can be a new deep seaport (~ Rs 27000cr). Though NGOs and local political parties have drummed up opposition to the plans, procedures are getting completed and the land is being allotted. A DPR has been released for the port.

Port Policies: Cabotage liberalisation and Competitive tariffs
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Cabotage liberalisation in May 2018 has shown a 29% surge in coastal container cargo from 1.1m to 1.4m TEU. More domestic trade is done directly with Indian ports or using Indian port transshipments. It is helped by the emergence of deep minor ports and dredging of major ports, to establish a domestic-only circuit, where 6500 TEU container loops 5 South & East ports of Cochin, Tuticorin, Chennai, Krishnapatnam and Visakhapatnam. Though the foreign share of Indian export-import container trade remains at 40%, some change is happening. One international shipping line (Wan Hai Lines) has added Tuticorin and Cochin (besides JNPT) for direct calls in the India-China route. Cost of handling Indian goods at foreign ports is "hefty and avoidable" @ $200-250/ container. To push for a meaningful change, Govt is set to rework vessel-related charges made by mainline vessels at Major ports, to make discounts less ad-hoc in nature and bridge the pricing gap with minor ports and regional rivals. This will be done via Major Ports Authority Bill 2020 in the current sitting of parliament.
Operational efficiencies and E-governance: Faceless and Paperless Ports
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Operational efficiencies come under modernisation, mechanisation, and digitisation. Install of Container scanners, RFID system, Enterprise computing hardware, network cabling and user interfaces, etc. are combined with new software like automatic berth allocation, plot planning, booking to port linkages, seamless goods throughput, etc. Machine learning and Artificial Intelligence software are to come in the future.
Besides, Port Community System (PCS) a centralised web-based system for e-governance was introduced for all Major ports. It has a common interface and allows seamless, secure transfers of data between participants. It is part of the e-governance initiative. It is paper-less, has single-window access, is available to all participants, and used for all port-related tasks. As such, it reduces time and cost for all. Data can be used for research and analysis. To further promote paperless ops, E-invoicing, payments, and document transfer via PCS's e-DO (Electronic Delivery Order) are now mandatory. Blockchain technology and Smart Contracts raise confidence in information sharing and make e-transactions very fast and highly secure. PCS is upgraded to PCS1x to include a "latch-on facility" so it could interact with all trade partner portals. This forms the National Maritime Single Window, an all-encompassing portal and India's method to transform EoDB and cost-efficiency.

Thursday, March 5, 2020

YES Bank: A Trade buy for State Bank of India?   Link

If YB's liquidity is the primary issue, it would have secured outside funding. When that failed, Govt hastened a deal with SBI et al. But, SBI can not ignore YES Bank's near-zero net worth and will not invest unless there is something for them, like sharing of YB's technology, rapid expansion, and strong growth prospects. YB's investors are getting carried away and who can blame them! As of now, we don't know what the deal is worth, all the parties involved, and details like, is SBI contemplating a merger or a stake buy.

China-Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation: What difference does this make?

IMO, it makes no difference. It is though a bludgeon to bash these deviant and miscreant countries and their poisonous narrative, in all forums, mindlessly and repeatedly as they do you. Ian era of paid media, fake news, fake victimhood, and popular mass delusion, there is no solid middle ground. The news report feels it will undermine attempts to equate India and Pakistan Nuclear missile programs and it may somehow bolster India's chances of getting entry into NSG as a full nuclear state. It thinks it opens China and Pakistan to serious consequences for violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act.

Towards higher Oilseed Yields   Link  Link


Good news has appeared in reports.

GROUNDNUT
ICRISAT shared aspects of two new groundnut varieties with healthier oil (>78% oleic acid content) and potential yields of more than 3t/ha. The high oleic acid in new varieties (x10 higher) extends shelf life and has health benefits like improved blood lipid profile and better glycemic control. Cultivation has started and it will take two years to reach consumers. In an industry meet in Gujarat, an important state for groundnut, it was decided to popularise eco-friendly farming like bio-fertilizer. For robust uptake of new varieties, measures would be taken to achieve high yields and high returns to farmers. Regional production of high-quality seeds with high genetic purity would be set up, and marker-based, quality control checks would be done in farmers’ fields, seed systems, and value chain.

CASTOR OILSEED (inedible)
Agricultural surveys in Gujarat peg production at 1.74 mt in ~750,000ha for 2019-20. This is despite the locust attack in December 2019 which caused serious damage to the crop. Gujarat's yield is said to be 2.39 t/ha against last year’s estimate of 1.75 t/ha. The overall yield for the country for 2019-20 is 2.05 t/ha as compared to 1.41 t/ha last year. Gujarat is by far the biggest producer of castor oilseed and its yield estimate puts it at the very top of the global yields. India's yield would take it from 7th to 2nd rank based on 2017 charts.

RAPE MUSTARD OILSEED
Fungus infection, Alternaria affects up to 2.97m ha or ~43% of total sown area in a bad year, where losses can be as high as 3.4 mt. “But the losses in Rajasthan and UP, where mustard is grown in huge quantities, are lower these days as farmers are more aware and apply fungicide during early days of infestation. Problem is severe in Assam." Scientists have identified genomes from chickpeas that have resistance to Alternaria, so resistance can be transferred to rapeseed-mustard.

According to SEA (solvents extractors association), “R & M are among the most promising oilseed crops for reducing dependence on edible oil imports (via yield and area growth) and increasing farmers' incomes through advancement in existing methods. Besides, R & M offers higher returns at low cost of production and lesser water requirement for irrigation. There should be effective extension support to bridge the awareness gap of advanced techniques, particularly in rainfed regions.

SEA and Solidaridad are organizing extension support for Rajasthan which is unable to improve or diversify out of low-income, dryland field crops. It makes Raj a good place to start. 100 Mustard Model Farms will be set up on pilots (over 5 years) for 2500 farmers. Field Resource Centre will be set up and farmer field schools will share technical know-how, training and extension support to farmers. First year's yields increased by 30% with more expected. Meanwhile, ICAR is encouraging farmers in East India to grow mustard in rice fallows, with success in the area added and yields. 20 seed hubs will be set up in East and NE India, exclusively for mustard, by the next financial year.

OIL PALM (not oilseed)
Nagaland has 2620ha under palm plantation and has potential for 20+mt/ha of fresh fruit branches for >5yr plants (equals Malaysia, global no. 2) with quality planting materials, irrigation, and proper management. It has 68,000ha of marginal, rain-fed land for oilseeds/ oil palm. With improved irrigation, Telangana will raise oil palm on 18,100ha in the next 2 years.