Predicting Bengal Elections from the feel of the Campaign
TMC is doing religious polarisation and presidential style campaigning. TMC would appear to be crazy as BJP plays this game better than any political party. What is happening and what does it mean for TMC?
Mamata is the Chief Minister and the tallest leader in West Bengal. TMC is very unpopular and has little to be proud of in terms of governance and achievements. On the other hand, it has carefully cultivated the Muslim vote bank over the years. So, polarisation was there before the elections were called.
Islamist Abbas Siddiqui started it by making inflammatory anti-Hindu speeches from ISF-Cong-Left platform. As he was funded by Mamata just before forming ISF, he is likely to be part of a wider political strategy. Now there is a direct effort at pro-Muslim, anti-nationalist polarisation by Muslim TMC leaders. Mamata started the campaign by appealing to Hindu sentiments to deflect charges of being anti-Hindu. But this stopped after a controversial foot injury, where she was shamed in front of her chosen constituency. She has moved on to campaigning elsewhere, and this is mostly aggressive rhetoric and crude remarks about Modi and BJP. She is doing anti-Hindu propaganda by imagining saffron-clad, tilak-wearing goondas from UP who are out in the streets of Bengal to disturb the 'peace and safety' of ordinary Bengalis. The message is that Mamata and TMC goons are fighting the good fight against 'outsiders' (who are BJP leaders and supporters) and Bengalis should do the same by voting for TMC.
TMC has bravely entered the double-edged game of polarisation, anti-nationalism and political violence. But the situation is not in TMC's favour. Election Commission has removed senior, pro-TMC govt officials who were trouble makers and brought in large number of Central security forces. Campaign has seen desertions of TMC politicians and workers to BJP. As a result political violence is down, and huge crowds are showing up and are highly vocal behind BJP. Media is not partisan as it used to be. Though TMC TV spokespersons are aggressive and breathless, the top TMC strategist is sounding uncharacteristically realistic and downbeat. Pessimistic projections in TV polls from December to March (today), are showing a rising trend for BJP where it has come from behind to match or exceed TMC's seat tallies.
There are also signs of imminent defeat for TMC, as evident from frustration and anger in Mamata's otherwise pointless and clueless speeches, small crowds at her rallies and people walking around and not showing interest; from Mamata's desperate calls to former workers to return and support her; from not being able to rig elections as was done before, nor disrupt voting through intimidation and violence; from crowded BJP booth camps that are full of activity in contrast to nearby deserted TMC booths on the first day of voting (27/3/2021); and from news such as this, so early in the election process -
The momentum is clearly with BJP. But, many commentators are cautious about jumping the gun and projecting the win to BJP. This is because TMC has grip over 30% of state voters that are Muslims. TMC also has some traction among Hindus particularly women through welfare, some castes, Mamata's big name and anti-BJP (or "anti-outsider") sentiment. Even if this is true, BJP has more credibility on every issue compared to TMC. For example, most Bengalis want a better life and whilst TMC has failed over 10 years, BJP has shown good development in states as different as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Gujarat. BJP promises to create one job for every family; give more welfare for women out of State funds than TMC; and kick-start Centrally-funded schemes denied under TMC, that benefit low income families, farmers and fishermen.
