West Bengal Election analysis: People are revolting and realising their future lies with BJP

TMC is said to be losing the election by a landslide to BJP and Left will not benefit

Left had ruled on the basis of class and played down social differences which clearly existed be it differences due to caste, religious partition of Bengal or being refugees escaping persecution in erstwhile Pakistan/ Bangladesh. Eventually, Left went against its ethos by giving special attention to Muslims, and lost power in the State. When TMC came to power, it offered different benefits to each community and this caused political fragmentation of the poor (which is the voter base of the Left).

Left says TMC had allowed the entry of BJP, which is a Hindu-centric party, into West Bengal through its policy of selective appeasement and political empowerment. Left had recognised back in the early 1990s that it could not co-exist with BJP; that BJP will eat into Left's political base if BJP took hold and grew in West Bengal - Mohd Salim: Story of CPM in West Bengal. By early 2010s, BJP was a national party and had established strong state governments based on the Ram temple movement, Hindutva and development plank. Mohd Salim is pushing the false narrative that TMC and BJP are allies today and have always worked together in a underhand manner to destroy Left's support base.

The Election analysis suggests that communities were fundamentally dissimilar and political fragmentation was inevitable. It also meant that TMC could not organically grow beyond its strongholds (in South Bengal) and so TMC used coercion and violence against its opponents to try to gain political ground. The analyst says that intimidation and violence by TMC during the local panchayat elections in 2018 has led to irreparable resentment against the TMC. People joined hands across party affiliations, and voted for BJP against the TMC in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in areas where Left was strong. The anger towards TMC has only grown and become more strident.

Over time, TMC started to do Muslim appeasement and doubled down on it by doing anti-Hindu activities. So much so, TMC is now looked at as a Muslim party. Even Left for 2021 elections has allied itself with Congress (a Muslim-favouring party) and a diehard Muslim regional outfit!!

1. Dalits and Adivasis have shifted to BJP as high Muslim concentrations have settled in their areas and are causing problems. Illegal Hindu refugees from Bangladesh want to change their status quo and are using their Hindu ID to make cause with BJP. Dalits, Adivasis and Hindu refugees form the strongest voter base of the BJP and happen to live in rural West Bengal.

2. Youth want jobs rather than live on benefit. TMC welfare schemes are not attractive to them. Aspirational Bengali youth favour the pro-development policies of BJP.

3. Violence which was once directed against political opponents (during Left and TMC rules) has shifted to attacks on ordinary people that cross paths with TMC goons. State police is highly biased for TMC and is guilty of harassment, making up false cases and not prosecuting cases against TMC goons. As a result, people of all non-TMC parties are inclined or have shifted wholesale to BJP as only BJP has the strength to stand up to TMC. Defections from TMC to BJP have happened mainly to stop reprisals for violence perpetrated under their stay in TMC. Local BJP have warned the central leadership to carefully vet these turncoats and not give them BJP tickets as this will bring anti-incumbency and people's anger onto BJP.

4. Local TMC workers are interfering in day-to-day lives of people and asking them for corruption money to get anything done. TMC has stopped people from doing small-time corruption (which was done by Left) and instead has taken over corruption activities, expanded these by forming criminal syndicates and monopolised corruption money for itself. TMC has angered the people by their arrogance and ostentatious display of ill-gotten wealth. 

5. TMC workers have/ are collecting commissions from welfare schemes on behalf of TMC leadership and this has hurt TMC's pro-poor image. They stole the special relief package announced for a tropical storm from people who were part of their support base. Because of this folly, TMC has very clearly lost support even in its heartlands.