In practical terms, how productive is Indian agriculture

Major crops (excluding horticulture) have lower yields compared to the world and the average of top-producing countries. These crops include maize, cotton, oilseeds, rice, wheat, pulses, etc. In practical terms, the comparison is much closer. 

India is clearly far behind in Maize, Cotton and major Oilseeds (soybean, mustard & groundnut). In Rice and Wheat, India is competitive vs the world & top producers ex China. Since China does not export rice or wheat, its influence in the world markets is minimal. India is not far behind in pulses if 2020/21 India stats are used. India is ahead in sugarcane vs the world & all top producers. 

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➖ MAIZE - Yield is growing at a fast clip @ 3.3-3.4% pa over 5 years (aver of last 3/4 yrs). Its rate is much faster than top producers US, China, Brazil, EU27 & Argentina @: 0.13%, 1.03%, 0.78%, 0.65%, 1.0%. Despite the fast yield growth, overall yield gap is too big to make up, unless there is a change in approach like GM crops. OTOH, Maize is an important crops and a significant yield growth creates surpluses for domestic industry (eg feed, ethanol).

➖ COTTON - Yields of 0.454-0.462 t/ha are very low compared to top producers like China, Brazil and USA (1.9, 1.7, 0.93 t/ha). Yields have fallen in recent years by -1.1 to -1.28% pa. Irrigation is an issue but not the most important one. Irrigation rates have hovered at 33-34%, except for a few spike years. For example, irrigation was 45% in 2019 and 33.2% in 2018. Maha with largest area under cotton has irrigation of just 2.7% and sub-par yields of 0.36 - 0.25 t/ha (see insert). A new approach is needed eg. new GM variety. Cotton is exported so if profit is there, states like Maha should go for micro-irrigation. India can switch some cotton areas to other crops, as selling raw cotton is only helping international competitors get low prices due to Central govt subsidies

➖ OILSEEDS - Soyabean (share 35%) - Yields fell from a high of 1.35 to 0.76 t/ha. The current yields of 1.0-1.2 t/ha, though higher, represent a decline over a long period. India ranks worst among 45 countries and is going nowhere.

Mustard (share 31%) & Groundnut (share 27%) - India ranks poorly in both, more so Mustard where it is last among 28 countries. Production for both fell by some margin till 2014 or 2015 but has since risen to record levels in the last 3 to 4 years.

Mustard production has grown from 7.92 to 11.75mt in 5 years. Mustard yield is 1.51 t/ha, going up 4.1-4.5% pa. Canada & China are at 2.32 & 2.07 t/ha but growing slowly (as of now) at 1.2% pa. As of now, the gap to China is closing and may close in 10 years!

Groundnut yields alternate with low-high years at 1.68 & 2.06 t/ha, and are going up 5.2% pa now & 3.2% pa earlier. So, India has a biannual yield of 1.87 t/ha and a mid-term growth of 4.2% pa. This compares very poorly to China at 3.8 t/ha (even if it is growing at just 0.79% pa), but it is better than next big producers from Africa. China has 37% global share in Gn. India is 2nd at 13%. As such, China is the big comparator. Insert shows top 3 Indian states (Guj, Raj, TN) have excellent yields, whose high year yields are high. If national growth rate is applied, these states may be comparable to China in 13 years. Eg. high yield year are 2.75, 2.2 & 3.0 t/ha. Low yield years are 1.9, 2.26, 2.3 t/ha (down 19%). Top 3 states have 69-73% share: Gujarat has 41-46%, Raj 16-19%, and TN 9-10%.

➖ WHEAT & RICE - Wheat yields are growing at @ 2.8-3.2% pa. Rice yields are growing at @ 2.0-2.3% pa. Yield growth rates have seen a jump, esp for Wheat. So, it is safe to say India can make up a 10% gap quite quickly if the past holds.

➖ PULSES - Pulses production has taken off remarkably in last few years. Yields are also rising @ 2.7-3.0% pa. It is helped by government actions (eg regional seed banks of high-yielding varieties, higher MSP and assured MSP offtakes, etc). Gram 4-5% pa (share 50%), Tur dal 2.8%-3.3% pa (share 16%). Lentil (Masur) 4.2%-4.5% (share 5%). Yield growth in Gram, Tur dal and Lentil can close the pulses gap with global average & top producers.

➖ SUGARCANE - Yield is up 2.2% to 82.2 t/ha in 2020/21. Yields are likely to go up in the future. This is because sugarcane is a profitable crop and there is a strong govt offtake for bioethanol and sugar exports. Supply-side changes are contributing to large surpluses, like new sugarcane varieties, continued investment in micro-irrigation esp in Maharashtra (with rain-affected yields), good prices in North India, virtual elimination of sugar dues of farmers, govt incentives for bioethanol capacity. NB. Water is not the limiting factor in Maha if micro-irrigation is promoted, or inter-seasonal storage is created in the Konkan region.

Eg. In Sugar Season (Oct-Sep) 2021-22, Sugarcane production is at record 500m tons(!) PIB Link—making India the world's largest producer of sugar. India also consumes the most, even as it diverts record & much higher amounts each year to ethanol and exports. First estimate 2022-23 for Sugarcane production is 8% higher than fourth estimate of 2021-22. It would suggest production could exceed 550m tonnes in 2022-23.

PADDY RICE

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WHEAT

MAIZE

PULSES

SUGARCANE

Indigenous Aluminium trains to bring greater speed and cost-efficiency  link

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"These lightweight aluminium wagons are a great innovation for Indian Railways. They combine the best of global technologies and local resources, so railways logistics is more efficient and adds greatly to Atmanirbhar Bharat."

"These wagons will help Railways towards its freight share target of 45% by 2030. Benefits to India's economy are huge, as 1% increase in Railways' freight share saves ₹2.32 lakh cr (or 0.9% of GDP)!!"  link

On 16th October 2022, Indian Railways flagged off the first indigenous aluminium goods train. It is manufactured by Besco Ltd (for wagons fabrication) and Hindalco (which supplies HS plates and extrusions). Its design and development were done in collaboration with RDSO. Alu rakes are extensively used in Japan, Europe and US. IR plans to acquire over 1 lakh wagons @15% shift to alu wagons. Benefits of alu freight rakes are listed below.

On the passenger side, Railways will introduce 'next-generation' Vande Bharat, or Vande-3 design (see insert) with light-weight alu bodies. Whereas Vande-3 trains that are made of steel are able to cruise at 200kmph on existing tracks, the alu versions are 40-50% lighter and have a top speed of 225 kmph. Speed is increased because rakes can tilt into the curve. Alu coaches are widely used in USA, Europe, Japan, China and S Korea. They are revolutionary because of much lower operating costs, and longer lifespans by over 10 years.

Railways will acquire at least 200 next-gen VBs at cost of Rs 26,000cr in both normal AC chair and AC sleeper versions. Trains will come after a few years when prototyping and testing (of Vande-3 design) are concluded and after the order of 75 Vande-2 is completed. In the next tender of 400 Vande-3, first 200 are expected to be steel-bodied. But if alu version is available, perhaps all 400 Vande-3 trains will be made of aluminum. IR workshops will manufacture the trains. Hindalco is likely to supply aluminium, whose TOT comes from South Korea.

➖ Rakes are 180 tonnes lighter than existing steel rakes, so carrying capacity is increased. [19% higher payload to tare ratio @2.85]. These rakes have lower haulage fuel cost per kilometre, lower annual maintenance costs and higher speeds. Speed is increased because rakes can tilt into the curve. ➖ Rakes have a 10-year longer lifespan because they are not prone to weather corrosion and have abrasion resistance. So, there is minimal wear and tear to rolling stock and rails!."They are 100 per cent recyclable and even after 30 years, they will be as good as new!" Resale value of scrap is 80% of cost! 

➖ Although rakes are 35% more costly, they don't use imported nickel or cadmium; and the "fully lock bolted construction with no welding on the superstructure" is superior. As such, it will spur growth in domestic aluminium mining, alu fabrication and precision manufacturing.

➖ Rakes have lower carbon manufacturing & operating footprint. 14,500 tonnes of carbon is saved by a single rake (~ 60 wagons) over its lifetime. A 20% shift to these wagons will reduce CO2 emissions/year by a whopping 60 million tons.

■ Pic : Vande-3 train design

Alu version

Expected by 2025

■ Video :

Developments for New India

Vande-3, Kavach, Bullet train, Rail stations, Chip manufacturing, 5G