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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Solar has become a super-hit for renewable power fans. It's now far below the average of coal-fired power at NTPC (Rs 3.2 /kw). The historic low of Rs 2.44 /kw for 500MW auction at Bhadla park in Rajasthan, follows a bid of Rs 2.62 per unit also in Rajasthan earlier this week. Developers can see tariffs falling to as low as Rs 1.5 per unit !!

Nation would not pay a high price for power
Interview: Piyush Goyal, Union Power minister
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Why did you go for imported solar panels?
Manufacturing capacity that came earlier was not viable because it was very small in scale. The task was to bring economies of scale and bring down prices through transparency so that states are encouraged to buy. At Rs 3, solar power is cheap and there is security because it will cost the same for 25 years when coal power will be Rs 10-15.

What now for Indigenous solar manufacturing?
Now, when I promote domestic manufacturing, the difference could be 20-25 paise which the country can afford. We will encourage solar wafer manufacturing in India. We need to push for wafers, and BHEL will set up a plant. In modules, there is 6-7 Gw capacity and it is growing rapidly. For solar cells, we will become self-sufficient in six to eight months.

Should VGF on solar shift to the indigenous solar manufacturer?
I keep calibrating. I won’t be surprised if that happens. Subsidising manufacturing, instead, is not a bad idea. We could look at things like tighter quality control so that we get good quality equipment. You would have to be an approved supplier.

How will the next level of scaling up in solar and wind come?
I am hoping by March next year, we should cross 20,000 Mw, which was a target for 2022.

What about Ultra mega power plants?
UMPP will be a reality, as they will assure cheap, clean power over the long term. Thermal will remain the base load for power supply. I am glad we didn’t bid earlier because with interest rates falling and equipment cost coming down, we can get attractive pricing. It may not be as low as those earlier ones, because some of them were not viable. Today the nation will not pay a very high price for power. Nobody will pay more than Rs 3-3.5 (a unit) for power.

India will have some of world's cheapest solar power


COMMUTER RAIL / Metro PROJECTS

NCR RRTS
- 3 prioritised routes at the approval stage. The centre is committed with no obvious land issues.
DRA corridor is only underground or elevated!! No land acquisition needed. But needs approvals from NCR transport board and States. Cost is Rs 37,500 crore for 180.5 km or Rs 210 cr/km. DGM corridor was approved by NCR on Dec 16. It is also only underground or elevated. It will cost Rs 21,9000 crore for 92 km, or Rs 240 cr/km. DSP corridor needs accommodation with NH agency to run the elevated section parallel to NH-1.

Mumbai Suburban
https://arvindagarwal1.blogspot.com/2019/03/what-is-ailing-mumbai-suburban-rail.html

Mumbai Metro
- 3 lines u/c at Rs 35,700 crore for 68.5 km or Rs 520 cr/km
- 5 lines start 2017, at Rs 46,000 crore for 107 km or Rs 430 cr/km
Doubles commuter rail capacity, with links to fast-growing suburbs; shorter stops; new E-W routes; and new alignments parallel to congested corridors. Mostly elevated. Integrated with other modes. To finish between 2020-22. Metro 3 is marquee project for S Mumbai - fully underground, all land to be returned.

Bengaluru suburban rail
Starts small, caters for 40% trips. IR to connect Blr with district towns (Hosur, Chikkaballapur, Kolar, Tumkur, Hindupur, etc) by adding stops on long-distance trains, increasing frequency (eg in Blr-Mysuru) and by running new rakes. Action: buy electric rakes (move in both directions without turning); replace mainline trains with MEMUs; build new Blr station to free space for suburbans; finish select doubling, signalling & electrification by this year.


Soon, reach Alwar from Delhi in 104 mins
Smart Industrial Port City of Paradip
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—❡ If your (investors') aim is to make Paradip the key to industrialisation in the East, our vision is to provide best-in-class facilities that include smart utilities, facilities, security, warehousing and connectivity ❡— Official. 28 companies have shown interest.

Shipping & ports union minister has announced new Smart Industrial Port Cities in all major ports of India. Paradip is a port city in mineral-rich Odisha. Paradip port is a natural deep water port and India's 2nd largest. Under Sagarmala project smart city, industrial parks, multi-modal hub and improved port are planned for Paradip.

Expansion of outer harbour into a smart city will have customs region ( 2100 - 3100 A), industrial parks (1800 A) & residential area (1600-2300 A). Some features:
1a. Smart city (250 A)
1b. Slum redevelopment (155 A) under PM AY
2. Extensive road network for townships & port
3. Creek development for tourism
4. Drinking water supply lines
5. New and smart drainage system
6. Water recycling and water management
7. Road beautification and greening
8. Solar energy park of 20MW

Industrial activity
1. Double capacity of Paradip port to 250+ MTPA, add 12 outer berths
2. Deep dredging of port—for Capesize vessels
3. Industrial parks —for MSME
4. Multimodal hub (350 A)
5. New railways from Talcher (coal town)
6. Development of Talcher coal belt
7. Petro-chemical projects near Paradip (massive Rs100,000cr)
Paradip to be made a smart port, smart city: Nitin Gadkari

Detailed
Boston Consulting firm has made a blueprint for the Paradip Smart city. Ministries of UD, IR and shipping are involved.
✜ 6,300 A at cheap rates
✜ MMLH includes: bulk & break cargo terminal, container terminal, warehouses, sorting and grading zone, intermodal transfers and a cold chain.
✜ Port capacity to 212 MTPA by 2035: 12 berths, Capesize vessels, additional 150MTPA for coal
✜ Indian Oil will do 50,000cr expansion of the refinery
✜ Other interested firms: Ultratech Cement, Deepak Fertilizer, the Chatterjee Group, JM Bakshi
✜ Development of NH-5A and NW-5 (to Talcher) are underway.
✜ Doubling & tripling of railway line
Infrastructure: Paradip Port eyes turning into smart industrial city


Kandla port and SIPC Kandla
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Kandla Port is located in the Kutch area of Gujarat, a major manufacturing state. Kandla port is a deep sea port and India's largest cargo port. Kandla Port Trust also has the largest land bank among 12 major ports. KPT wants to develop the land on the landlord port model— under which, infra and regulation remain with Port Authorities and right to service is auctioned to the private sector.

Major Port Authority bill 2016 allows major ports to use the landlord model. It brings in the private sector in a transparent manner and helps major ports to grow in a competitive environment.

KPT's strong industrial policy has led to huge windfalls. Rents have skyrocketed from Rs144/yr per A to Rs39000/yr per A. There is a new zeal for growth and competition. In particular, KPT wants to lease land to private industry so it will boost cargo traffic at Kandla port.

Sagarmala project encourages the development of industries that benefit from short logistics, shipping, and inland waterways. KPT plans to build complementary infra like port development, multi-modal logistic parks and a smart township.

Smart port industrial city
✜ Township in Gandhidham (580A, 3 km from the port)
✜ Multimodal logistic park incl railway sidings
✜ Industrial Zone (845 A)
—Initial setup cost of Rs 1200 cr
—Investment likely of Rs 3000-5000 cr
—Warehouses, salt farms and tank farms
—Interest from manufacturers of edible oil, furniture, wind-power equipment and salt-based chemicals
—Kutch has ceramics & salt industries, many minerals, one of the world's largest timber operations, world's largest arc pipe manufacturer.
✜ New terminals
—Container terminals, giving 100k TEL in 1st Yr
—Oil terminal
✜ 200MW solar and wind farms

Smart features of SIPC Kandla
▬ Intelligent traffic surveillance
▬ Non-motorised transport infra
▬ Rainwater harvesting, water recycling & desalination plants.
▬ Smart water meters and distribution
▬ Smart waste management (adequate capacity)
▬ Emergency power backup, intelligent lighting
▬ Smart gas & electricity meters, smart grid, leakage detection, incident reporting & firefighting activation.
Kandla Port Trust set to unlock value from 25,000-acre land bank


Smart cities summit in Nagpur

DEVENDRA FADNAVIS

The public bodies, officials and smart city solutions providers should interact on smart cities. I call on stakeholders to come together and share their knowledge and experiences.

Policy makers in India didn't favour urbanisation, but it happened because it was inevitable. In this unplanned process, villages are deserted and cities have grown into chaotic sprawls. PM Modi's direction is to look at urbanisation as an opportunity for the development of the common person. Smart cities are not just for the affluent. Transparency and efficiency, which are the aims of smart cities, will help poor get better services, by way of accessibility and affordability.

Out of three services (water, power and waste) only a handful pay for water. Because of lack of capital, there is no expansion in coverage, and focus on services is on those who pay. The rates are high and increasing because people grab water (or steal) while others pay. Smart cities should lower costs so that even middle class will afford it. That is a relief for many who want to keep within the law.

Smart cities should be citizen-centric. This means it must change the quality of life for all or most of the people. If people don't accept, or recognise, the benefits, they will be sceptical believing it will only benefit the wealthy. Progress can not be made without public support. So I suggest public participation is essential. Now our planners, mayors, elected representatives, all must engage beforehand - find out what people want and suggest what is good for them - to get their collective wisdom. I assure you talks lead to good outcomes. I advise using IT platforms for this outreach.

We should be building an IT backbone for the city - and an enterprise solution - that can leverage all the technology solutions and reach the people fast. For example, in Nagpur, we laid 100 km of fibre cable. We are now able to leverage any technology, speed up the implementation and results will also show up fast. In Mumbai, we have installed 6000 cameras connected with fibre. With smart traffic management, traffic offences are caught 24/7 - not just when police are around - and billed directly to their mobiles. It should inspire people to be more law abiding. In Mumbai, we have installed 500 hot spots (soon 1200), making Mumbai India's first wifi city. This will be leveraged for multiple uses.

Smart cities must offer sustainable solutions. In Mumbai, we will build 200 km of metro-rail. We can't keep building for road users as this is never-ending. At the same time, it is not about any one type of public transport. So, we integrated 4 modes of transport - metro, mono, suburban and bus. Then we developed an app (smart solution) that allows planning across multi-modes, - travel and wait times and distances are given - and then we will issue one ticket to cover the whole journey!! This is why people will prefer public transport. Nagpur has a good sustainable solution for treating solid and liquid waste. Old water is recycled and used in power plants, while fresh water is left for people. We will take this to 4-5 other cities.

Employment generation is also important for our smart cities mission. We want skills oriented opportunities (they may not be high-level skills) and then we will create those skill-sets in youth. These will not be government jobs but will be based on a sustainable financial model. As I said, people want efficiency and transparency. We believe in innovation and how technology evolution will lower costs. This has happened in solar power and that has reduced power tariffs. We value that technology brings transparency. It is after all neutral to gender, caste, class and religion.

NITIN GADKARI

Nagpur is the 1st in India to provide 24x7 drinking water. In slums, this is 16-18 hours. While we congratulate the administration, we need much better auditing (monitoring) and make admins responsible. In my visit to Nagpur, we found tanks were leaking and wasting so much water. I approved 50 large cement concrete tanks, new pipelines and a computer system to monitor water levels. The computer ensures equal distribution of water to all areas.

5 years ago, we sold our sewage water to Nagpur electricity corp. Whilst we saved govt water, we also worked on converting wastewater to methane or bio-CNG. From our waste, we ran 50 city buses.

Waste to wealth should be part of any smart cities mission. Our experience has been that alternative fuels are low cost, clean and promote import substitution. I learnt that London had great experience of electric buses. But at Rs 2.5 crore per bus, it was unaffordable. Li-ion batteries in them were Rs 55 lakh!! Back home, I was able to get ISRO to develop proven Li-ion cell batteries in 6 months. I presented it to PM, saying this can save Rs 6-7 lakh crore India spent on importing fuel. Electricity is clean, surplus and produced entirely within India. Amount spend on power traction is a fraction spent on fossil fuels (1/10th). So, now we are promoting electric vehicles (e-rickshaws, buses, cars, bikes). Within a short while, we will start 20-100 electric taxis in Nagpur on an experimental basis.

The lithium-ion battery is the key technology. ISRO said they would restrict licence to only PSU Bhel. I made them give it to all private players that wanted it. The competition will reduce the cost, eg. airfare from Nagpur to Mumbai was Rs 8000, now because of choice, it is Rs 2200.

In the upcoming waterways in the Ganges, we are promoting LNG as a clean fuel. Dual fuel (diesel and LNG) engines for barges will now be produced in India through a JV of Indian auto firm and a foreign company.

Nagpur has air-conditioned buses that run on bio-ethanol. There is a shortage of molasses, so govt has decided to make second gen ethanol from biomass, bagasse, cotton straw, wheat straw, rice straw, bamboo, etc. Bamboo is plentiful in NE. Rice straw is plentiful and farmers are burning it, causing pollution. Rural people, incl tribals will benefit if we promote this.

Smart cities should recycle liquid waste. In the Ganges where we have pollution from 60 cities, we had to spend Rs 60,000 crore on treatment plants. By using Hybrid annuity model, our upfront cost is just Rs 24,000 crore. To pay for the annuity, we are able to sell dirty water. For example, Indian Oil Corp is going to clean and use water from all 80 MMD of Mathura. Dirty water can be recycled at IR plants at depots in Kanpur and Lucknow, and there are 20+ thermal plants to sell to.

For solid waste, lots of experiments are going on. In Delhi, we are using segregated waste (plastic, metal, glass) in highways, and other waste can be converted into organic manure and methane, and further into bio-CNG or power.

Nagpur is 1st metro to get 75% power from solar. We are taking good designs from international architects. This will be done for upcoming IR stations as well.

Centre wants multi-modal hubs in smart cities. Railways, airport and bus station should be at the same place. Govt has budgeted to build one each in Nagpur and Varanasi. We need a connection between metro and commercial areas. Nagpur can get a pilot project for the Metrino (150 capacity "skybuses") and develop commercial areas along the way. Smart cities need money. This will give Rs 1000 crore to the corporation. Our politicians are taking the initiative to improve Nagpur infra. Nagpur is getting brilliant new infra thanks to Centre and State govt, eg. flyovers, metro rail, wonderful stations, bypass, expressways.

Given slow progress at WTO, India is looking at FTAs or bilateral pacts to push trade in Services. FDI is a good opportunity to sell services— via own centres or Indian partners. Demographic growth and improved skills attainment have the potential to drive India's trade in global services. Skill India is one of the key policies. India should also improve efficiency, capabilities and policies for better targeting, eg. in education, manufacturing and R&D. Start-up India is designed to create — and retain — an entrepreneurial class, that helps to capture niche global markets.

SUMMARY of key sectors
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Information Technology - a $143b (2016) behemoth, incl $108b in exports. Growth is expected to be 8.5% in 2016.
Biggest private employer at 3.7m jobs.
Visa restrictions will impact employment prospects in India.

Healthcare - A massive $160b (2017) and to grow hugely to £280b by 2020!!!
Good value proposition.
Visa-free access to 150 countries
The unique appeal of traditional medicines (like Ayurveda & yoga)
Digital India can push telemedicine (only $16m)

Logistics - A huge $123b (2015) sector growing at 9%
Govt is highly focused here - growing capacity
IT sector has scope to improve efficiency (esp after GST)
Competitive two-way trade, but scope to shift balance via above.
Improvement in country rankings.
High manpower one of India's strengths.

Tourism - A $110b (2015) industry and 7.8m foreign visitors.
Helped by logistics infra, specific upgrades, beautification, etc
Improvement in country ranking.
Visa-free entry for 150 countries.

Education - substantial $47b (2014),
Unmet demand being filled by the private sector.
Govt wants to improve quality consciousness, foreign involvement
Scope to attract foreign students (many past failures).

Media - A major employer and contributor to GDP. $17b (2014), growing at 14%.
14th largest in world
High quality, lower cost, diverse offerings, flexible pricing to match.
Should find traction globally, esp animation, visual effects.

Accounting - fast-growing sector (14-15%), which is helped by much higher business and corporate activity in India (esp M&A, FDI).

Legal - surprisingly small at only $6.8b (2012) but fast-growing at 15%.
Huge manpower, in small practices.
Sizeable share devoted to exports (18k employed in outsourcing)

Management consultancy - robust growth in IT consultancy exports has made India become a net exporter from 2013, with a phenomenal size of $14.5b (2015).
A $3.5b domestic market, growing at 9.5%
Relatively high employment equivalent to > 1/3 legal.
Has created a lot of new jobs.

Architecture & Engineering - modest $900m (2014), but growing at 14%.
Urbanisation and govt infra spend
Expected to reach $1.5b by 2018.

Space, MRO - Small sectors that are growing very fast (for now).
Govt is pushing both with a budget spend, tax benefits. MII, FDI
High domestic growth in aviation demand
MRO has doubled from $77m (2012) to $189m (2014).
Unmet demand for satellite services, incl telecommunications.
High launch activity, improving capability, higher subcontract.
ISRO wins on costs and credibility.

Example of teleservices in India: Common Service Centres (CSC) - Head of the agency says 60 million will be made literate in rural areas in 3 years.

Indian services sector - poised for global ascendancy.pdf - Google Drive


CROP STUBBLE BURING AND POLLUTION

What's in it for the farmers or the neighbouring states? And if there is cooperation, then what must be done? Creating a smoke-free zone is the obvious solution. In Delhi, it means banning the burning of any kind, like rubbish, wood fuel and generator diesel. This also means providing alternatives like rubbish collections, cooking gas and good quality 24/7 power. Farmers in neighbouring states should have economically viable alternatives.

In India, 550 million tonnes of crop residue is left on fields, after harvesting and straw removal. Wheat and rice are harvested during Apr-May and Oct-Nov respectively. Crop stubble is burned across India, unknowingly or unconcerned about the impact of smoke, fire and heat on health, visibility, accidents, deaths, environment and soil. Air pollutants and air quality can be measured for a given area of the city. Satellite imagery, like from Nasa's FIRM web fire mapper, can show fire spots (fire burning clusters). Comparison with previous years is done as a monitoring tool. However, air quality measures can be affected by weather, other incidents and changes in cropping pattern.

GOVT MOVES
Rewards, threats and even registration of cases -- nothing seems to work. Reaction from farmers has been to protest, defy, threaten to escalate and demand unreasonable gratification. Punjab will use satellite technology to monitor and pinpoint incidents and farm holdings. Special Taskforce is being raised to identify culprits, register cases and prosecute. The firm action has reduced fire spots on satellite imagery and better air quality is seen in Delhi. Experts have advised caution into reading too much!!

RESEARCH
Adesh Institute (AIMSR) found smoke impacted farmers health and quality of life. 85% in all age categories suffered in some respects. The study shows paddy burning is more widespread; smoke lingers in winter air and drifts further out of the area. Rice and wheat accounted for 85% of cases but sugarcane in Maharashtra also featured. 1/3 of residue globally was burned. Experts suggested that residue should be collected and used as fodder, fuel, ethanol or incorporated back into the soil. Crop burning was a quick economical method of clearing field for a new crop. When States fixed a fine based on farm-acreage, most fines were collected from farms under 5 acres. The heavy-handed approach had failed to convince, but awareness had made a difference.

BROADER STATE RESPONSE
State pollution control board, agriculture department and the districts are keeping a watch over the burning of straw through remote sensing. They have imposed fines on culprits. They have asked farmers to suggest alternatives and offered a subsidy. Centre was asked to assist in raising farmers' awareness. All states petitioned Centre to do much more, by way of subsidy and facilitate procurement of modern residual management machines.

Devinder Sharma, an independent analyst, doesn't see any need for a central subsidy for such steps. "The only solution is that combine harvester manufacturers should make farm machines which enable chopping the plant stem from the base, and bundle the straw like a bailer does."

Punjab govt is to bring 50,000 hectares under summer moong dal, a 60-65 day crop, to sow on wheat residue. The low cut residue (3-4 inch) acts like mulch and helps in early germination. Wheat residue can make fodder but paddy residue lacks fodder value and is problematic to cut. One demonstration to Punjab agency had straw compressed anaerobically and converted into biochar, soil nutrient pellets. Experts are advising planting early maturing (less water guzzling) rice varieties as they leave less residue and give higher incomes.

ZERO TILLING and DSR
Experts are advising farmers to switch to zero tilling and direct seeded rice.

Zero tilling is a low-cost method of planting or rather "drilling" seeds (here wheat seeds into rice stubble) 2-3 inches below ground. Modified Happy seeder combines close cropping and zero tilling and saves time. Zero tilling saves on water and organic content—which it gets from the stubble—and gives higher wheat yields (+ 10%).

In Direct-seeded rice, rice is planted straight into the moistened, wheat-stubble ground, along with weedkillers and fertilizer. No transplanting is required. DSR saves on labour, water (only 1/2 used) and electricity (used for irrigation), and improves yield.

Zero tilling has wider application, as it is a very effective method for sowing without water. Zero tillage was used to introduce a second crop in rabi (after Kharif rice), in water-stressed (or hilly area), where usually only rice could be grown. For example, water-resistant mustard (or pulses) can be successfully grown on rice stubble using zero tilling. Researchers added honey bee colonies to pollinate and generate extra income.

My link - Methanol & second gen ethanol from crop waste
https://arvindagarwal1.blogspot.com/2019/03/niti-aayogs-methanol-conference-shows.html

Delhi's air quality may improve as UP, Haryana, Punjab take steps to discourage stubble burning

Gas pipelines and fertilizer projects for Eastern India

"Such huge investment is rare in eastern India. Our aim is to bring a transformation, perhaps a 2nd green revolution."

Work will start on two natural gas pipelines (Jagdishpur-Haldia & Bokaro-Dhamra) and an LNG terminal at Dhamra. Fertilizer plants will be enhanced by 2MT and four plants of 7.5 MT capacity will be revived by 2020-21. PSUs will fund the revival plan. IOL and NTPC are involved in building 3 gas-based projects at cost of Rs 20,000 crore at i) Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh; ii) Sindri in Jharkhand; iii) Barauni in Bihar. GAIL and CIL will fund coal gasification-based project at iv)Talcher in Odisha at cost of Rs 8,000 crore.

India to invest Rs 50,000 crore to revive four mothballed fertilizer plants
BJP AND THE OPPOSITION
Defeats, defections and disorganisation: Why India’s opposition is nearly irrelevant

At Jagannath Temple in Odisha, Amit Shah, BJP’s master strategist, vowed his party would capture every state, “from panchayat to parliament.”

BJP and its allies now control 17 out of India’s 31 state legislatures, together representing more than 60% of the country’s people. Not surprisingly among the opposition, alarms are sounding. Latest bell rang on April 26th, as results emerged from voting in Delhi’s three municipal corporations. The BJP won all with two-thirds majority. AAP, the feisty upstart in Delhi, was left sputtering nonsense.

Mr Modi’s party is tenacious and aggressive. It enjoys unmatched discipline and organising power; but it can also play rough in the contact sport that is Indian politics. It has out-witted Congress to resurrect NDA government in many states like Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Manipur. It has out-muscled the AAP, through scores of lawsuits, police raids and investigations, to send a message to its loud and brazen leadership.

"On many counts, BJP stands apart from the opposition." Though it has built a personality cult around Mr Modi, it is not a party of dynasty. Most of its top leaders have spent long apprenticeships as volunteers with Hindu nationalist groups before entering politics. BJP is different because it believes in something. It wants India to be strong, and to abandon the legacy of secular socialism and embrace a greater national Hindu identity.

All too often India’s opposition parties have scored own-goals, by way of lack of development, bad governance, corruption, minority appeasement, messy defections or simply failing to join forces to stop the juggernaut. Another is the emphasis on personality over principle. This has seen Left parties floundering for relevance once their exalted leader dies.

Some are regarded as mere vote-getting machines that do not stand for anything. Trinamool Congress of West Bengal, ruled with an iron-fist by Mamata Banerjee, is based on an insubstantial mix of populism and Bengali pride. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, power has alternated between two parties that display very similar ideologies.

Saffron surge: Defeats, defections and disorganisation: Why India’s opposition is nearly irrelevant