Crop Production growth and contributions from Area and Yield: Analysis
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Total area grew from 173.64Mha (2001) to 204.2MHa (2017), ie. area growth is 30.6Mha (17.6% of 2001 level). Notional area growth due to yield (total deemed area growth net of actual area growth) is much higher. Yield growth for all crops is 72.2Mha (41.6% of 2001 levels) (see below).
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Area and Yield are % of Total Area at yr-1
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Oilseeds incl seed cotton (at 16.2% out of 41.6%) have made the biggest yield contribution to production, followed by Rice and Coarse grains (non-maize) (6.4% each). Wheat, Maize and Pulses (~3.3% each) were less productive. Among other crops, grown on ~15% of area, there is good contribution from Spices (1%), followed by Fruit & Vegetables (0.8% each) and Plantations (0.58%). Area under Pulses (9.4%) has grown the most, esp since 2015. Oilseeds (4%) matched Pulses but have recently lost area to Pulses. Wheat and Maize are other gainers. Other Coarse cereals have lost area (-4.3%), while Rice was the same. Among other crops, which are invariably profitable, Fruit & Vegetable (1.9% each) were very popular, Plantations and Spices have grown by 0.5-0.7%, while Sugarcane is same or lower.
Growth in area & yield of each crop can be derived using the %total area at start (ie. 2001), eg. Rice was grown in 25.9% of total area in 2001. Rice yield growth is 6.4 / 25.9% = 24.7%.
Area & Production as % of current total Area & Production
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Current mix of crops, and trends in Area & Production can be more clearly shown by it. For example, though Rice Paddy production has increased from 140Mt (2001) to 168.5Mt (2017), -- and Wheat production has increased from 69.7Mt (2001) to 98.5Mt (2017), they represent a smaller share of total food production (down from 40.7% to 33.1%). Traditional cereals (incl Sorghum, Millet) & sugarcane have lost ground because they were pooled with strongly-performing, competing crops. Revival can happen if the yields or value/tonne are improved significantly. Eg. Sorghum has lost 43% of area & 34% production and its yield was unchanged (down 2.7%). Millet lost 29% of area but only 8.5% production, as its yield went up by 29%. Value/tonne (~unit price) are roughly the same in both cases. So, higher yields of Millet has made Millet relatively attractive, ie. Value/ha for millet went up from 98 to 257; for Sorghum it went up from 83 to 177.
Crops with higher share of production are Seed Cotton (2.8%) & Oilseeds (2.2%), Chick peas (1.4%) & other Pulses (2.4%), Maize (1.3%) and Horticulture (1.2%, from 10.5% to 11.7%). Coarse cereals, Rice, and Sugarcane have lost area relative to other crops. This 10.6% drop in total area is made up by Total Pulses (6.4%), Fruits (1.2%), Vegetables (1%), Seed Cotton (0.8%), Maize (0.7%), Plantations (0.3%).
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| Change in share of production is shown by dots, and of area by intercepts on x-axis |
| Crop Area as % of Area in: | Crop Production as % of Total DArea | |||||||||
| 2001 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2017 | 2001 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2017 | |
| Rice, paddy | 25.9% | 24.1% | 22.0% | 21.7% | 21.4% | 25.9% | 22.1% | 20.8% | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| Oilseeds, et al | 12.7% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 15.7% | 16.6% | 15.9% |
| Wheat | 14.8% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Pulses, others | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.1% |
| Cereals, others | 13.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Seed cotton | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| Maize | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Chick peas | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% |
| Vegetables | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Fruits | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Plantations | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Sugar cane + | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| Spices | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
Deemed Area
1. Deemed area projects a notional area in place of next year's production. Production can change by area or yield. If production changes, and yield is held constant, then area must change. This notional area represents change due to both area expansion and yield changes. Aggregation of production with different yielding crops (eg sugarcane and dry beans) can be done without distortion, as areas can be added just like values. Deemed area method uses previous year's yield on next year's production to calculate the notional sown area at the end of each production cycle. NB. Year 1 deemed area is the same as actual area:
Notional area for one cycle = { Prod yr=n / Yield yr=n-1 } = { Prod yr=n / Prod yr=n-1} * Area yr=n-1
Change in notional area = { Production yr=n / Prod yr=n-1} * Area yr=n-1 - Area yr=n-1
Cumulative Deemed Area = addition of change in notional area (above) to the previous deemed area (y=n-1)
Hence formula:
Deemed Area yr=n = Deemed Area yr=n-1 + { -1 + Production yr=n / Production yr=n-1} * Area yr=n-1Notional area for one cycle = { Prod yr=n / Yield yr=n-1 } = { Prod yr=n / Prod yr=n-1} * Area yr=n-1
Change in notional area = { Production yr=n / Prod yr=n-1} * Area yr=n-1 - Area yr=n-1
Cumulative Deemed Area = addition of change in notional area (above) to the previous deemed area (y=n-1)
Hence formula:
2. Area component at each year is cumulative area change from base-line area. Yield component is production growth (eg derived from deemed area calculation) less area component. NB. Yield = Production/ Area
Area at yr-1 = 20,000ha DArea at yr-1 = 20,000ha (always same) Area %= 0 Yield c% = 0
Area at yr-3 = 20,000ha DArea at yr-3 = 15,000ha Area %= 0 Yield c%= -5,000ha/20K= -25%
Area at yr-5 = 30,000ha DArea at yr-5 = 46,000ha Area %= 10,000ha/20k=50% Yield c%= 26,000ha/20k=130%
3. Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Yr 1 Area = 5ha x 1 + 0ha x 0.2 Yr 1 Area = 0ha x 1 + 5ha x 0.2
Yr 2 Area = 2*5ha x 1 + 0ha x 0.2 Yr 2 Area = 0ha x 1 + 2*5ha x 0.2
Yr 3 Area = 3*5ha x 1 + 0ha x 0.2 Yr 3 Area = 0ha x 1 + 3*5ha x 0.2
Yr 4 Area = 4*5ha x 1.25 + 0ha x 0.3 Yr 4 Area = 0ha x 1.25 + 4*5ha x 0.3
Yr 1 Area = 5ha Production = 5 Area = 5ha Production = 1
Yr 2 Area = 10ha Production =10 Area =10ha Production = 2
Yr 3 Area = 15ha Production =15 Area =15ha Production = 3
Yr 4 Area = 20ha Production =25 Area =20ha Production = 6
Deemed Area calculations
Yr 1 Deemed Area = 5ha Deemed Area = 5ha
Yr 2 DA= 5 + (-1+ 10/5)*5 = 10 DA= 5 + (-1+ 2/1)*5 = 10
Yr 3 DA= 10 + (-1+ 15/10)*10 = 15 DA= 10 + (-1+ 3/2)*10 = 15
Yr 4 DA= 15 + (-1+ 25/15)*15 = 25 DA= 15 + (-1+ 6/3)*15 = 30
Growth Contribution from yr 1:
Yr 1 Area = 5/5-1 = 0% Yield c% = (5-5)/5 = 0% Area = 5/5-1 = 0% Yield c% = (5-5)/5 = 0%
Yr 2 Area = 10/5-1= 100% Yield c% = (10-10)/5 = 0% Area = 10/5-1= 100% Yield c% = (10-10)/5 = 0%
Yr 3 Area = 15/5-1= 200% Yield c% = (15-15)/5 = 0% Area = 15/5-1= 200% Yield c% = (15-15)/5 = 0%
Yr 4 Area = 20/5-1= 300% Yield c% = (25-20)/5 = 100% Area = 20/5-1= 300% Yield c% = (30-20)/5 = 200%
DA yields: Deemed Area yr=n / Area yr=n
Yr 1 DA yield = 5/5 = 1.000 DA yield = 5/5 = 1.000
Yr 2 DA= 5 + (-1+ 10/5)*5 = 10 DA= 5 + (-1+ 2/1)*5 = 10
Yr 3 DA= 10 + (-1+ 15/10)*10 = 15 DA= 10 + (-1+ 3/2)*10 = 15
Yr 4 DA= 15 + (-1+ 25/15)*15 = 25 DA= 15 + (-1+ 6/3)*15 = 30
Growth Contribution from yr 1:
Yr 1 Area = 5/5-1 = 0% Yield c% = (5-5)/5 = 0% Area = 5/5-1 = 0% Yield c% = (5-5)/5 = 0%
Yr 2 Area = 10/5-1= 100% Yield c% = (10-10)/5 = 0% Area = 10/5-1= 100% Yield c% = (10-10)/5 = 0%
Yr 3 Area = 15/5-1= 200% Yield c% = (15-15)/5 = 0% Area = 15/5-1= 200% Yield c% = (15-15)/5 = 0%
Yr 4 Area = 20/5-1= 300% Yield c% = (25-20)/5 = 100% Area = 20/5-1= 300% Yield c% = (30-20)/5 = 200%
DA yields: Deemed Area yr=n / Area yr=n
Yr 1 DA yield = 5/5 = 1.000 DA yield = 5/5 = 1.000
Yr 2 DA yield = 10/10 = 1.000 DA yield = 10/10 = 1.000
Yr 3 DA yield = 15/15 = 1.000 DA yield = 15/15 = 1.000
Yr 4 DA yield = 25/20 = 1.250 DA yield = 30/20 = 1.500
