CROPS -  Area trends based on Value/ha

====================

Cropped area and value added per hectare are independent variables. However most crops show a strong correlation between them, either +ve or -ve (see last column). Crops respond differently as there are other factors such as level of value/ha, market demand (MSP, tariffs), yield variability and yield growth over time. Drought has impacted area & value-added of crops in 2015 and 2016.

High value (most important) crops
Rice : above average value/ha growth & good value/ha - no growth in area (Export saturation?)
Wheat : below average level and growth of value/ha - marginal area growth (for domestic demand)
Seed Cotton : decent value/ha and v. strong growth - deceleration of area growth (BT cotton)
Mangoes : high value/ha and average growth - strong area deceleration (saturation in demand?)
Potatoes/ Onions : good value/ha and v high growth - consistent area growth (a star performer)
Bananas : v high value/ha and v high growth, esp recent - area growth despite v high production (star)
Sugarcane/ Rubber : good value/ha levels and v high recent growth - no area change (expect +ve on UP yields, falling rubber import tariffs hurting production)
Chick peas : under-par value/ha & good growth, falls recently - area matching value/ha (competitive)
Okra/ Papayas : v high value/ha and v high growth, esp recent - area deceleration (saturation?)
Tomatoes/ Oranges : high levels & good growth - good addition and fall off (saturation?)
Maize : low value/ha & mixed growth, falling recently  - consistent area addition (demand growth)
Cauliflower/ Cabbage / Green peas/ Garlic : high to v high value/ha and growth, esp recently - consistent area additions (star performers).

Good to high value/ha crops
Pepper - good value/ha and very good value/ha growth, but falling area. Ditto Bastfibre.
Sweet potatoes - good value/ha, good recent value/ha growth - recovery in area in recent years.
Jute - acceptable value/ha and mixed growth in value/ha - steady fall in area.
Groundnut - acceptable value/ha & above-average value/ha growth - falling area to strong recovery

Look at the bottom of the table at low value/ha crops
Linseed - above average value/ha growth - falling area
Sunflower - low value/ha, and mixed growth in value/ha - yet, consistent and sharp fall in area
Sorghum - very low value/ha, below average growth in value/ha - falling area
Millet - very low value/ha, and mixed growth in value/ha - yet, consistent fall in area
Safflower seed - very low value/ha, falling value/ha and a bigger fall in area
Barley and lentils also have falling area
Exceptions: Dry beans & Soybean - low and falling value/ha yet strong area addition.

Conclusion: Minor oilseeds, coarse grains, pulses and fibres, comprising low value added crops, have fallen out of favour. Clearly, farmers are not happy to carry on as usual. Seed cotton, groundnut, maize, chick peas have done better, as have dry beans and soybean. Saturation has been reached for many erstwhile star performers. Also food waste is an important limiting factor.  Storage, cold chains, food processing and exports are needed to grow production.

LIVESTOCK -   trends in value addition

====================

Value of livestock has grown at a respectable 4% pa over 2 to 4 years. Cow milk, Chicken meat and Eggs are growing at 5% pa. Together they are 45% of total value of selected items (see below). Buffalo milk at nearly 50% of total value, was slower by 2.5% compared to cow milk. Mushroom (insignificant value) is growing at 4-6% while silk & honey (0.5% & 0.2% of total value) are growing at just 2-2.5% from 2008 (or, at 0.5-1.5% from 2014). Fresh goats milk is showing a major negative trend in value, while buffalo meat, goat meat and sheep meat have shown little or no growth. 

	AREA				VALUE / ha				Value/ha	Area ‘000	Value million	Correlation
Change(%pa) Year to 2016	2001	2008	2012	2014	2001	2008	2012	2014	2014	2014	2014	A & V/ha
CROPS	1.05	0.83	0.54	-0.10	9.09	2.92	-1.32	-0.68	$1,325	199853	264,792	2001-16
Ginger	5.02	5.07	1.70	11.38	10.17	8.59	0.46	0.34	4,073	133	542	0.96
Tobacco, unmanufactured	3.06	2.45	0.22	2.06	7.66	2.53	-1.25	-1.84	2,055	442	909	0.94
Melons, other cantaloupes	2.82	1.68	0.86	-0.29	6.44	1.45	51.18	49.46	13,837	46	639	0.94
Apricots	2.81	1.55	1.41	3.44	5.83	1.07	-2.57	-2.74	1,115	5	6	0.94
Bananas	4.24	1.36	1.95	2.37	7.35	0.83	35.99	34.62	10,267	803	8,240	0.94
Eggplants (aubergines)	2.85	2.31	-1.55	-3.46	6.75	2.52	15.25	14.52	2,618	711	1,862	0.93
Cucumbers and gherkins	2.92	1.53	-0.29	-1.53	5.16	0.77	-1.42	-1.72	1,001	27	27	0.93
Lettuce and chicory	2.66	1.59	0.16	-0.35	5.32	0.93	26.44	25.50	2,354	172	406	0.93
Plums and sloes	5.17	3.24	3.19	6.76	8.00	1.67	4.67	4.29	3,261	28	90	0.92
Pumpkins, squash, gourds	2.68	1.83	1.04	1.01	5.51	1.01	13.73	12.98	1,435	519	745	0.92
Okra	3.34	2.99	-0.79	-2.05	6.55	2.20	20.81	19.41	11,285	533	6,011	0.92
Papayas	5.73	3.98	-1.59	-0.51	8.37	2.66	24.42	23.46	15,860	133	2,115	0.92
Watermelons	2.57	2.14	1.44	1.18	6.53	1.57	15.80	15.09	2,275	29	67	0.92
Carrots and turnips	2.44	1.93	1.14	0.95	5.86	1.36	14.08	13.52	2,255	35	78	0.92
Beans, green	2.87	2.10	1.98	2.27	5.85	1.10	-8.46	-8.59	997	226	226	0.91
Chick peas	3.16	1.47	-0.13	-8.02	7.66	2.77	-4.17	-4.58	658	9,927	6,532	0.90
Oranges	6.20	3.08	6.31	-1.81	8.00	4.18	2.30	2.26	8,186	665	5,443	0.90
Tomatoes	4.96	4.55	-4.44	-6.32	8.36	3.98	9.43	9.04	6,311	882	5,567	0.90
Potatoes	3.70	2.19	2.53	2.27	7.02	3.04	20.84	20.28	4,279	2,024	8,661	0.89
Maize	2.38	1.93	1.76	3.41	9.13	3.11	-11.44	-11.38	573	9,258	5,309	0.89
Peaches and nectarines	2.17	1.00	1.81	3.32	7.75	2.59	4.88	4.55	2,751	38	104	0.89
Areca nuts	2.93	2.74	0.52	2.40	7.35	4.51	-1.31	-1.69	3,241	452	1,465	0.89
Cashew nuts, with shell	2.58	2.29	1.52	1.23	6.59	0.05	-4.05	-4.50	993	1,011	1,004	0.89
Wheat	1.37	1.44	0.97	-0.08	7.03	1.82	-3.28	-0.78	888	30,470	27,068	0.87
Fruit, citrus nes	19.70	7.56	2.18	26.55	5.87	1.60	11.36	11.35	6,364	57	363	0.87
Seed cotton	3.15	2.11	-1.90	-9.14	10.25	1.52	16.64	15.64	1,109	13,083	14,503	0.87
Tea	1.09	-0.08	-0.88	-2.22	7.66	4.82	1.02	0.73	955	604	577	0.86
Onions, dry	7.29	6.03	4.26	4.73	8.89	0.78	-0.10	-0.51	3,272	1,204	3,938	0.86
Pears	3.12	-0.55	-2.75	-2.73	6.58	3.37	25.57	24.85	3,079	42	130	0.86
Castor oil seed	4.28	3.42	-3.19	-3.13	8.28	2.97	-14.02	-14.12	803	1,105	887	0.86
Chillies and peppers, green	3.01	2.63	0.02	-0.35	5.00	0.70	22.93	22.29	2,444	8	20	0.86
Fruit, stone nes	0.75	0.93	1.39	0.17	7.35	2.98	-7.13	-7.15	1,332	1	1	0.85
Cauliflowers and broccoli	3.98	3.85	1.95	-0.91	6.42	1.73	14.91	14.14	10,183	434	4,418	0.85
Fruit, tropical fresh nes	3.87	1.85	-1.47	-7.59	7.66	5.79	9.20	8.95	7,460	529	3,949	0.84
Figs	0.93	0.92	1.19	1.37	6.68	1.81	-9.04	-9.11	1,005	6	6	0.84
Cherries	1.52	1.83	2.81	1.74	6.45	1.41	24.71	23.80	3,962	4	14	0.82
Garlic	6.42	5.99	3.60	10.29	8.50	1.37	14.43	13.84	7,619	231	1,760	0.80
Peas, green	3.71	5.60	5.35	7.17	8.06	3.40	22.65	21.87	5,158	434	2,236	0.78
Walnuts, with shell	0.18	0.11	-0.32	0.00	7.17	0.44	6.66	6.04	2,734	31	85	0.78
Mangoes, guavas	2.84	0.12	-2.88	-6.30	7.45	5.87	-0.97	-1.00	5,441	2,516	13,691	0.76
Pulses, nes	2.83	4.65	-1.62	-4.64	3.81	2.79	-1.40	-1.67	700	2,250	1,574	0.76
Grapefruit (inc. pomelos)	5.94	6.20	2.66	23.43	6.76	0.89	1.01	0.53	9,307	11	99	0.75
Cabbages. other brassicas	3.95	4.79	0.58	-0.77	5.87	0.93	14.17	13.48	5,763	400	2,306	0.74
Spices, nes	3.21	3.19	0.67	6.27	6.23	1.29	3.20	2.81	1,545	680	1,051	0.72
Anise, fennel, coriander	3.80	4.87	5.44	7.02	10.26	2.18	-9.24	-9.79	889	772	686	0.70
Peas, dry	2.09	5.11	6.13	-3.17	6.99	5.46	-11.95	-11.95	426	963	411	0.69
Soybeans	4.62	2.95	1.15	1.85	6.42	-1.04	-4.90	-5.61	340	11,086	3,771	0.69
Pineapples	2.41	4.72	2.54	0.05	6.85	2.38	14.71	14.10	6,458	110	710	0.67
Pigeon peas	1.13	1.28	-0.63	0.75	6.39	1.27	-13.55	-13.58	564	3,904	2,203	0.67
Rubber, natural	0.62	-0.33	0.79	0.03	7.68	3.22	27.90	26.80	2,620	455	1,192	0.67
Coffee, green	1.90	2.83	4.56	6.74	4.38	1.56	10.12	9.39	1,739	381	663	0.65
Sugar cane	1.39	1.17	-0.22	-0.40	3.96	1.70	20.48	19.61	1,495	4,990	7,458	0.60
Sesame seed	0.98	-0.39	3.71	3.37	5.16	4.36	11.32	10.69	335	1,778	595	0.56
Apples	2.41	1.56	-2.74	-5.93	8.36	2.75	24.06	23.75	7,888	313	2,469	0.56
Coconuts	0.74	1.28	-0.76	2.65	7.20	0.87	-3.45	-3.49	738	1,976	1,458	0.56
Rapeseed	1.26	0.04	-1.34	-6.89	5.19	1.86	2.58	1.79	567	6,646	3,769	0.49
Grapes	7.58	6.60	1.18	1.36	3.73	3.77	38.30	37.23	15,330	119	1,820	0.37
Fruit, fresh nes	7.15	5.78	4.68	5.09	2.46	-0.03	11.24	10.59	2,307	1,484	3,424	0.35
Lemons and limes	4.57	-2.07	1.42	-7.51	7.29	5.68	32.60	31.90	5,350	286	1,532	0.34
Beans, dry	2.95	6.12	10.80	19.42	4.86	-1.14	-6.77	-7.20	249	10,000	2,489	0.32
Nutmeg, mace, cardamoms	0.25	1.48	2.64	7.26	8.64	8.65	22.93	23.30	967	93	90	0.28
Rice, paddy	0.10	-0.08	0.03	-1.05	11.98	2.64	3.48	2.89	1,564	44,110	68,976	0.23
Cassava	-0.85	-3.46	-2.04	-5.47	4.93	-4.03	20.06	18.24	3,488	228	796	0.06
Chillies and peppers, dry	-0.04	0.09	0.26	2.31	7.99	3.98	5.89	5.59	2,824	775	2,188	-0.04
Vegetables, fresh nes	0.50	1.61	0.04	-2.36	6.77	1.64	13.11	12.79	4,981	2,623	13,066	-0.05
Lentils	-0.24	-0.37	-3.66	-2.45	5.80	3.92	-9.68	-9.71	372	1,341	499	-0.11
Barley	-0.33	0.10	-1.54	-6.40	8.77	3.36	3.10	2.86	700	674	472	-0.19
Cocoa, beans	11.99	12.80	6.93	6.81	-0.40	-5.96	-4.26	-4.37	194	71	14	-0.27
Oilseeds nes	-2.41	-4.86	-3.85	9.75	4.74	1.22	-25.56	-25.39	154	234	36	-0.53
Groundnuts, with shell	-1.74	-1.99	2.05	11.27	8.55	4.08	6.01	5.37	868	4,685	4,065	-0.59
Safflower seed	-7.27	-10.28	-2.66	-9.99	4.90	-3.47	-2.97	-4.55	274	178	49	-0.60
Jute	-0.63	-0.51	-1.16	1.78	6.39	1.85	-8.70	-9.04	868	741	643	-0.61
Millet	-2.06	-3.27	-3.91	-4.47	9.17	4.44	-3.25	-3.34	259	9,687	2,508	-0.63
Sweet potatoes	-1.03	-0.99	2.23	9.09	7.85	4.69	14.80	14.31	2,066	106	219	-0.69
Sorghum	-3.78	-4.30	-2.08	-1.22	7.25	-1.00	0.70	0.25	215	5,790	1,246	-0.80
Sunflower seed	-10.08	-16.20	-16.41	-14.87	8.94	3.78	-5.98	-5.99	455	552	251	-0.81
Bastfibres, other	-6.10	-5.82	-5.77	-9.35	4.97	0.57	15.97	15.52	757	88	67	-0.84
Pepper (piper spp.)	-4.22	-7.76	-8.11	2.00	7.37	12.49	13.18	13.45	1,114	124	138	-0.86
Linseed	-4.50	-5.48	-1.97	0.84	7.66	4.28	3.96	3.48	331	293	97	-0.93

Growth Year to 2016 (%pa)	2001	2008	2012	2014	Value 2014	%
LIVESTOCK	10.4%	5.5%	3.3%	4.4%	89,158	100
Milk, whole fresh cow	11.8%	6.7%	5.7%	8.4%	27,719	31.1
Meat, chicken	15.1%	8.9%	4.9%	6.0%	8,293	9.3
Eggs, hen, in shell	11.1%	6.2%	4.4%	5.7%	4,148	4.7
Mushrooms and truffles	3.2%	-3.5%	5.7%	3.9%	40	0.0
Milk, whole fresh buffalo	9.7%	5.1%	2.4%	2.6%	40,969	46.0
Meat, nes	7.0%	2.5%	-0.2%	2.5%	199	0.2
Silk-worm cocoons, reelable	8.1%	2.0%	-0.6%	1.5%	546	0.6
Honey, natural	7.2%	2.4%	-0.8%	0.6%	221	0.2
Meat, goat	6.1%	0.3%	-1.8%	0.4%	1,988	2.2
Wool, greasy	5.1%	2.3%	-1.1%	0.4%	79	0.1
Meat, buffalo	7.2%	2.5%	-0.9%	0.3%	953	1.1
Meat, sheep	5.8%	-0.5%	-2.2%	0.2%	1,092	1.2
Meat, duck	2.6%	-2.1%	-4.4%	-1.9%	97	0.1
Meat, cattle	5.3%	-0.3%	-3.3%	-2.4%	601	0.7
Meat, pig	3.0%	-0.9%	-4.0%	-4.7%	275	0.3
Milk, whole fresh goat	8.2%	1.3%	-5.9%	-14.4%	1,941	2.2