Predicting Bengal Elections from the feel of the Campaign

TMC is doing religious polarisation and presidential style campaigning. TMC would appear to be crazy as BJP plays this game better than any political party. What is happening and what does it mean for TMC?

Mamata is the Chief Minister and the tallest leader in West Bengal. TMC is very unpopular and has little to be proud of in terms of governance and achievements. On the other hand, it has carefully cultivated the Muslim vote bank over the years. So, polarisation was there before the elections were called.

Islamist Abbas Siddiqui started it by making inflammatory anti-Hindu speeches from ISF-Cong-Left platform. As he was funded by Mamata just before forming ISF, he is likely to be part of a wider political strategy. Now there is a direct effort at pro-Muslim, anti-nationalist polarisation by Muslim TMC leaders. Mamata started the campaign by appealing to Hindu sentiments to deflect charges of being anti-Hindu. But this stopped after a controversial foot injury, where she was shamed in front of her chosen constituency. She has moved on to campaigning elsewhere, and this is mostly aggressive rhetoric and crude remarks about Modi and BJP. She is doing anti-Hindu propaganda by imagining saffron-clad, tilak-wearing goondas from UP who are out in the streets of Bengal to disturb the 'peace and safety' of ordinary Bengalis. The message is that Mamata and TMC goons are fighting the good fight against 'outsiders' (who are BJP leaders and supporters) and Bengalis should do the same by voting for TMC.

TMC has bravely entered the double-edged game of polarisation, anti-nationalism and political violence. But the situation is not in TMC's favour. Election Commission has removed senior, pro-TMC govt officials who were trouble makers and brought in large number of Central security forces. Campaign has seen desertions of TMC politicians and workers to BJP. As a result political violence is down, and huge crowds are showing up and are highly vocal behind BJP. Media is not partisan as it used to be. Though TMC TV spokespersons are aggressive and breathless, the top TMC strategist is sounding uncharacteristically realistic and downbeat. Pessimistic projections in TV polls from December to March (today), are showing a rising trend for BJP where it has come from behind to match or exceed TMC's seat tallies.

There are also signs of imminent defeat for TMC, as evident from frustration and anger in Mamata's otherwise pointless and clueless speeches, small crowds at her rallies and people walking around and not showing interest; from Mamata's desperate calls to former workers to return and support her; from not being able to rig elections as was done before, nor disrupt voting through intimidation and violence; from crowded BJP booth camps that are full of activity in contrast to nearby deserted TMC booths on the first day of voting (27/3/2021); and from news such as this, so early in the election process -

Vikas Bhadauria (ABP News)

@vikasbha

· 26 Mar

Officials of the state government in West Bengal are destroying some files in the ministry, the destroyed files are being transported out of the ministry through car / jeep. # BengalElections2021

The momentum is clearly with BJP. But, many commentators are cautious about jumping the gun and projecting the win to BJP. This is because TMC has grip over 30% of state voters that are Muslims. TMC also has some traction among Hindus particularly women through welfare, some castes, Mamata's big name and anti-BJP (or "anti-outsider") sentiment. Even if this is true, BJP has more credibility on every issue compared to TMC. For example, most Bengalis want a better life and whilst TMC has failed over 10 years, BJP has shown good development in states as different as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Gujarat. BJP promises to create one job for every family; give more welfare for women out of State funds than TMC; and kick-start Centrally-funded schemes denied under TMC, that benefit low income families, farmers and fishermen.

DRDO is making very Impressive Progress

DRDO admin is doing a good job and orientating DRDO towards futuristic technologies

"DRDO has been spending 20-25% of the budget on R&D expenditure like critical equipment, testing platforms and project development (excluding staff & establishment costs). With an 8% increase in DRDO budget this year, there is less likelihood of major shortage of funds for critical equipment. Human Resources are also important and adequately funded. "DRDO has optimally deployed its scientific manpower on important projects. Scientists are working in niche defence technology areas which will be required for building next generation systems, weapons and platforms. They are collaborating extensively with academia in the blue-sky research and with industry to develop defence systems in the shortest time frame. "DRDO's aim is to respond ably to future war fighting requirements of the tri-services with advanced (futuristic) technologies. DRDO with its existing capabilities has taken up systems development in the emerging dimensions of warfare (such as space and cyber-security in a big way), and has expanded in the fields of artificial intelligence, quantum technology, asymmetric technologies, advanced materials, sensors, photonics, cyber technology, etc. DRDO allows as much as 20% of each laboratory budget to be spent on pure research in futuristic technologies." Development milestones 1. DRDO was very busy with missile trials and with great success incl. Akash NG MRSAM, HSTDV, Dhruvastra, QRSAM, Rudram, SMART, BrahMos, SANT, Prithvi-2, Nirbhaya CM. It follows the landmark demonstration of ASAT (anti-satellite weapon) capability in 2019. 2. User trials were completed for Nirbhay CM, Nag and MPATGM (man-portable anti-tank guided missile) and JVPC (modern sub machine carbine). Indigenous AIP (air-independent propulsion systems) for IN submarines is a landmark achievement. They are ready for induction or deployment. "Fuel cell-based AIP of NMRL laboratory is unique as the hydrogen is generated onboard. The technology has been successfully developed with the support of industry partners L&T and Thermax. It has now reached the stage of maturity for fitment into target vessels." 3. Phased deliveries commenced for Astra missiles to IAF, 10m Short Span Bridging system to IA, and Indian Maritime Situational Awareness and Varunastra (heavy weight torpedo) to IN. 4. DRDO schedule for 2021 trials includes whole/parts of AEW&C, AMCA, Guided Pinaka (rocket artillery), Radar systems, Missile systems, and Underwater Unmanned Systems. Design work on a high-attitude operable Light tank for the IA has commenced. Work on a 1000hp power pack (Engine + Transmission) for the same has been taken up. 5. Aerospace developments (very high-value) 5a. Tejas MK-II program is progressing fast. Manufacture of long-lead parts has started. Detailed design for other parts is near completion so the first prototype (series production variant) is on schedule for rollout in August 2022. 5b. Preliminary design review (PDR) of AMCA is also completed. The detailed design has commenced and rollout of the first prototype is planned in first half of 2024. 5c. While GE 414 (a bigger US engine) is selected for Tejas MK-II and early version of AMCA, Indigenous Engine development will happen parallelly and is targeted for AMCA Mk-2. It will replace GE 414 in older fighters and is designed to slot in with minimal changes. "Kaveri engine design has given enormous experience in various aspects of engine development. We are working out a collaboration with foreign engine houses having complementary capabilities, for making the new engine within the country. We are getting closer to achieving the desired technology." 5d. Twin-Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF) for the Navy, is being developed to replace the Russian-made MiG-29K fighters. It will be designed to operate on current and future aircraft carriers. TEDBF is planned to be inducted by 2032. 5e. MALE UAV TAPAS BH-201 (Rustom II) has an operational range of 1000 km, 350 kg payload with an endurance of 24 hours at 30,000 ft altitude. Payloads will vary depending on ISR mission requirement and incl. Long Range Electro Optic (LREO) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) MPAR, ELINT, COMINT, IFF, TCAS, UCR. 5f. DRDO is prepared for the fast growing requirement for UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) through a dedicated Aeronautical Test Range at Chirtradurga, Kar, a dedicated design lab (ADE), Autonomous and Robotic technology labs and DRDO Young Scientist labs.

Indigenous Akash NG - Improved MRSAM that could be the weapon of choice

Akash NG successfully conducted its maiden trials in January 2021. Remarkably in a very short time, DRDO has come up with a home-grown alternative to the recently co-developed MRSAM (equivalent to Israeli Barak-8). Akash NG uses Indian subsystems (eg. radar and seeker), so it is cheaper and import requirement is much lower; and developers can make changes to subsystems at any time and integrate it with existing inventory without external help.

◙ Dual pulse rocket motor - useful for intercepting highly manoeuvring targets at a longer range.

◙ Powerful seeker - useful for targeting low-visible targets and faster targets up to the category of SRBM. As such, it can neutralise short-range ballistic missiles that are ever-present threat to forward IAF bases. (NB. Barak-8 is able to stop SRBM from 150km)

◙ Slated launch system - useful as it does not need additional thrust component, so missiles are lighter, longer-ranged and cheaper. It will respond faster if oriented in the right direction.

◙ Combined ASEA Radar and Launcher setup - useful as it becomes a mobile, stand-alone system. Radar can also support nearby missile launchers if required.

◙ Choice of detection system (eg radar, thermal, laser, TV) - useful as it can remain hidden from enemy fighters that don't have the right warning equipment.

West Bengal Election analysis: People are revolting and realising their future lies with BJP

TMC is said to be losing the election by a landslide to BJP and Left will not benefit

Left had ruled on the basis of class and played down social differences which clearly existed be it differences due to caste, religious partition of Bengal or being refugees escaping persecution in erstwhile Pakistan/ Bangladesh. Eventually, Left went against its ethos by giving special attention to Muslims, and lost power in the State. When TMC came to power, it offered different benefits to each community and this caused political fragmentation of the poor (which is the voter base of the Left).

Left says TMC had allowed the entry of BJP, which is a Hindu-centric party, into West Bengal through its policy of selective appeasement and political empowerment. Left had recognised back in the early 1990s that it could not co-exist with BJP; that BJP will eat into Left's political base if BJP took hold and grew in West Bengal - Mohd Salim: Story of CPM in West Bengal. By early 2010s, BJP was a national party and had established strong state governments based on the Ram temple movement, Hindutva and development plank. Mohd Salim is pushing the false narrative that TMC and BJP are allies today and have always worked together in a underhand manner to destroy Left's support base.

The Election analysis suggests that communities were fundamentally dissimilar and political fragmentation was inevitable. It also meant that TMC could not organically grow beyond its strongholds (in South Bengal) and so TMC used coercion and violence against its opponents to try to gain political ground. The analyst says that intimidation and violence by TMC during the local panchayat elections in 2018 has led to irreparable resentment against the TMC. People joined hands across party affiliations, and voted for BJP against the TMC in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in areas where Left was strong. The anger towards TMC has only grown and become more strident.

Over time, TMC started to do Muslim appeasement and doubled down on it by doing anti-Hindu activities. So much so, TMC is now looked at as a Muslim party. Even Left for 2021 elections has allied itself with Congress (a Muslim-favouring party) and a diehard Muslim regional outfit!!

1. Dalits and Adivasis have shifted to BJP as high Muslim concentrations have settled in their areas and are causing problems. Illegal Hindu refugees from Bangladesh want to change their status quo and are using their Hindu ID to make cause with BJP. Dalits, Adivasis and Hindu refugees form the strongest voter base of the BJP and happen to live in rural West Bengal.

2. Youth want jobs rather than live on benefit. TMC welfare schemes are not attractive to them. Aspirational Bengali youth favour the pro-development policies of BJP.

3. Violence which was once directed against political opponents (during Left and TMC rules) has shifted to attacks on ordinary people that cross paths with TMC goons. State police is highly biased for TMC and is guilty of harassment, making up false cases and not prosecuting cases against TMC goons. As a result, people of all non-TMC parties are inclined or have shifted wholesale to BJP as only BJP has the strength to stand up to TMC. Defections from TMC to BJP have happened mainly to stop reprisals for violence perpetrated under their stay in TMC. Local BJP have warned the central leadership to carefully vet these turncoats and not give them BJP tickets as this will bring anti-incumbency and people's anger onto BJP.

4. Local TMC workers are interfering in day-to-day lives of people and asking them for corruption money to get anything done. TMC has stopped people from doing small-time corruption (which was done by Left) and instead has taken over corruption activities, expanded these by forming criminal syndicates and monopolised corruption money for itself. TMC has angered the people by their arrogance and ostentatious display of ill-gotten wealth. 

5. TMC workers have/ are collecting commissions from welfare schemes on behalf of TMC leadership and this has hurt TMC's pro-poor image. They stole the special relief package announced for a tropical storm from people who were part of their support base. Because of this folly, TMC has very clearly lost support even in its heartlands.