VDPAssociates @VDPAssociates: 01 May 2019
Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd. Some states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019
12 May 2019
Quite a few records could be broken on May 23rd. Only 2 incumbent Prime Minister's Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru and Indira Gandhi won re-elections with single party majorities in peace time conditions(war tensions and sympathy wave post assassination).Will there be a third addition on May 23rd?
Records broken + Hint: BJP is poised for a clear majority (13th May 2019)
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BJP+ has been close to zero in LS seats so can't break records by being zero or low in any state. NDA or BJP can break records by being high -- but it is probably difficult to predict a new high mark, with high confidence, after the highs in 2014.
States where BJP is likely to go higher: 1. West Bengal 2. Odisha 3. Kerala 4. Tamil Nadu 5. North- East 6. Karnataka 7. Haryana. Unlikely to match 2014 : Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh. Punjab, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir. Certain to be below 2014: Bihar, Maharasthra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh
States where BJP is likely to go higher: 1. West Bengal 2. Odisha 3. Kerala 4. Tamil Nadu 5. North- East 6. Karnataka 7. Haryana. Unlikely to match 2014 : Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh. Punjab, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir. Certain to be below 2014: Bihar, Maharasthra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh
Others: YRS Congress will get majorities in LS & Assembly for the first time. Left will fall to its lowest level in West Bengal and may reach its lowest seat numbers. TRS might win all but one seat in Telangana. If BSP is in favour it may win the most seats in history outside UP. SP, TMC, NCP, Congress, DMK, AIDMK will not top their high-mark. Congress can reach a new low -- but seats in Punjab, Kerala, Chhattisgarh and TN are likely to boost its numbers.
The pundits were saying this
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1. Uttar Pradesh is split btw BJP and Mahagatbhandan (~40:38)
2. Gujarat, Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh are given to BJP with losses of 15-20% from 2014
3. Maharashtra is given to BJP-SS+ alliance
4. West Bengal is given to TMC
5. Andhra Pradesh is given to YSR Congress and Telangana to TRS
6. Bihar is given to BJP-JDU+ alliance
7. Tamil Nadu is given to DMK-Cong+ alliance
8. South Karnataka is given to Cong-JDS, North Karnataka to BJP
9. Chhattisgarh is given to Cong and Jharkhand is split btw BJP and Cong+ alliance
10. Odisha is split btw BJP and BJD
11. Kerala is given to Cong-UDF alliance
12. Assam, Arunachal, Tripura are given to BJP+
13 Delhi and Haryana are given to BJP
14. Punjab is given to Cong
15. Himachal and Uttarakhand are given to BJP
16. Other NE states are as per the assembly
17. Kashmir is given to NC-Cong+, Jammu to BJP
Likely stunners to unimagined results
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BJP stunner in Kerala with 2 seats (to 3+ seats)
NDA stunner in Tamil Nadu with 16 seats (to 20+ seats)
BJP stunner in West Bengal with 13 seats (to 18+ seats)
BJP stunner by winning Karnataka by 19 seats (to 21+ seats)
BJP stunner by winning Odisha by 13 seats (to 16+ seats)
BJP stunner by winning UP by 60 (to 65+ seats)
BJP stunner by winning Haryana by 9 (to all10 seats)
NDA stunner by winning Punjab (7+ seats) (to 8+ seats)
NDA stunner by winning North East (19+ seats) (to 21+ seats)
Unlikely stunners
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Major Losses for TRS or YRS Congress down to below 50% seats
Major win for LDF (10+ seats) in Kerala
NDA loss of over 10+ seats in Bihar plus Maharashtra
Mahagatbhandan stunner in Uttar Pradesh (45+ seats)
Congress stuns by winning 85+ seats or 20+% seats in any BJP heartland state except Chh
List of Upsets
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Pro-incumbency for BJP/ NDA
# NDA stunners in Tamil Nadu, Punjab
# BJP shockers in Kerala, Chattisgarh, South Karnataka
# BJP outstanding in Uttar Pradesh, WB, Odisha
# BJP clean sweeps Haryana, Delhi, HP, Uttarakhand, Jammu & Ladakh
# BJP sweeps, winning 90% of seats in Gujarat, Raj, MP plus Jharkhand
# NDA sweeps like 2014 in Maharashtra and Bihar
# NDA wins 10+ in Assam, 19+ in North East
Pro-incumbency for State Govts
# TDP stunner in Andhra Pradesh
# LDF shocker in Kerala
# TMC wins a 2014 level mandate
# BJD sweep in Odisha
# AAP shocker in Delhi (wins 2+ seats)
Congress/ UPA+ resurgence
# Cong wins 25+ seats in Gujarat, MP plus Rajasthan
# Mahagatbhandan sweep in Uttar Pradesh
# Cong shocker in North Karnataka, Haryana, North East or Jammu
May 13th, 2019
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