Priorities and Funding for Modi 2.0 sarkar
=========================== (assuming India's current GDP is $2800B, and real growth is 6%pa) 1. Infrastructure covers roads incl expressways, railways incl bullet trains, airports, ports & waterways, digital infra, river linking, housing & urban infra, tourism infra, piped drinking water, solid & liquid waste management, piped gas, PV solar: Modi 2.0 has targeted projects worth $1,500B in 5 years. At 15% increment in budget every year, gross investment of $222B or 7.9% of GDP is required in the first year. For paying upfront costs of 25% (the remainder and unspecified maintenance costs are collected by user charges, loans, etc), the cost to GDP is computed below. 2. Agriculture infrastructure for improving farm productivity incl. micro-irrigation, warehousing and other post-harvest infra, fisheries infra, food processing, rural housing and rural infra, etc: $375B will be invested in the next 5 years. This amounts to 25% of Infrastructure spend. Infra Infra + Agric Yr 1 1.93% GDP + 25% Agri 2.41% Yr 2 2.09% 2.61% Yr 3 2.27% 2.84% Yr 4 2.46% 3.08% Yr 5 2.67% 3.34% 3. Education and Health: An elevated target is expected from the combined Centre and State budgets, from 4.6% + 1.5% of GDP in Yr 0, to 5.6% + 2.3% of GDP in Yr 5. Thus total expenditure rises from 6.1% to 7.9%, or by annual increment of 0.36% of GDP My links: Health https://arvindagarwal1.blogspot.com/2019/03/govt-target-of-2.html Education: https://arvindagarwal2.blogspot.com/2019/03/perspective-on-government-spending-on.html
Centre+ State Centre share
Yr 1 6.46% GDP Centre at 50% = 3.23 Yr 2 6.82% 3.41 Yr 3 7.18% 3.59 Yr 4 7.54% 3.77 Yr 5 7.90% 3.95 4. Defence and Home security: Expect 0.05% GDP yearly growth from notional 3% GDP

5. Social security: Ditto Defence & Home

6. Sundries in key areas like Science, research & technology, MSME, Judiciary and state policing: Expect 0.05% GDP yearly increment in allocations from notional 1% GDP.
Defence+ HS Social Security Sundries Infra + Ag+ Ed&H Total Yr 1 3.05% GDP 3.05% GDP 1.05% GDP 5.64% GDP 12.79% GDP Yr 2 3.10% 3.10% 1.10% 6.02% 13.32% Yr 3 3.15% 3.15% 1.15% 6.43% 13.88% Yr 4 3.20% 3.20% 1.20% 6.85% 14.45% Yr 5 3.25% 3.25% 1.25% 7.29% 15.04% To fulfil these demands, it would mean around 2.45% of GDP higher Central taxes, and 0.7% of GDP higher State taxes, after 5 year period. Infrastructure debt will be additional 38% of GDP, but expect some repayment out of user charges, higher profits, asset sales and private or PSUs investments.
June 1st, 2019
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/country/india