Featured Post

Visit arvindagarwal2.blogspot.com for posts from 2017 to 2019

Sunday, July 21, 2019

Trump and what US is doing with Pakistan and others
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump is transactional and has a sharp focus on increasing US economy and meeting military objectives. He has bullied quite a few countries, ranging from close allies, near-friends and rivals. In trade, he has taken on NAFTA countries like Mexico and Canada and large countries like China, India, Japan and the European Union. For the military purpose, he has cajoled with distractors like North Korea and Russia. Iran is the enemy, mainly because of its support for Hamas and treated like that. If Iran proves too difficult to bully, it could slide into no-mans-land like North Korea, Russia and China.

Pakistan and Turkey fall in-between the enemy and distractor, if you go by what Pakistan has done to US in Afghanistan and Turkey has done in Syria. As "enemies", Pakistan and Turkey have been distanced and penalised, but never threatened. As distractors, Pakistan has been cajoled or listen to and indulged. US is ready to work with or transact with Pakistan on Afghanistan, and Turkey on Syria.

Pakistan has been a US child for more than 60 years, that has grown up, gone astray and kept different company for a while. Turkey is a NATO ally. Thus, a reconnect with both countries can to be expected at any time. Currently, there is a give and take offered by Pakistan, due to Pakistan's immediate compulsions and accepted by US. Both, I might add understand the past, but are playing up the present and not hoping much for the future.

Obviously, Pakistan will do what US wants in the present, for which monies will change hands. The future may not even be discussed, but it goes without saying that if Pakistan keeps doing what it is been told to do in the future for which monies will change hands, then there will a strong reset to the relationship.

India under PM Modi has had a single-point focus on improving all parameters of India's well-being, improving external relationships for trade and mutual benefits, retaining friendly relations and isolating Pakistan for sponsoring terrorists. US had asked for a range of benefits, which clearly were not possible. US-India relationship had many aims such as greater defence cooperation, procurement of US arms, business & technology sharing, and coordination in the international bodies and on foreign policy wrt Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, etc.

The US detente with Pakistan is an opportunity for India and US to do what they want with no expectations from the other side. India can go with defence deals with Russia & France, oil deals with Iran, beating up Pakistan, Make in India tariffs, data localisation rules, stricter e-commerce rules, tax on FPI trusts, stricter scrutiny of foreign funding, etc while US can engage with Pakistan, hike tariffs on India exports, etc.

No comments: