Possibilities for Railways' Rs 50 lakh crore investment to 2030

Govt has a number of railway investment buckets, such as:
1. Metro-rail 
2. High-speed rail
3. Dedicated freight corridors
4. New railway lines
5. Doubling or more of existing track
6. Strategic lines in mountainous terrain
7. Commercial development of stations, renewable power and efficiency improvements

I have done a spreadsheet analysis to apprehend what is possible with Rs 50 lakh crore. It suggests the overall plan is feasible at 6% financing and 67% debt. It does not account for inflation, which in any case will help to repay debt. Centre's burden is also not astronomical, as budgetary allocations will be much lower --in the initial years-- due to phasing. 

The plan allows Govt to do projects in all categories - but in allocations of funds and debt, a balance is needed between benefiting most number of people, and heading off challenges of low profitability. For example, 5000 km of Metrorail, suburban & regional rapid transit system  (5000km is big but achievable if suburban rail and RRTS are included) benefits 75% of people, consumes 50% of total equity but generates net losses after financing. HSR makes losses at 20% equity but benefits a large number of high-paying, intercity commuters. Both will require additional taxes, eg higher property rates or stamp duty. 

Other projects can be done within the suggested debt/ equity ratio, which is not surprising as projects with high freight components (eg DFC, doubling) are generally viable. The plan aims to exploit high profitability buckets by offering generous augmentation of freight capacities, commercialisation of stations and railway modernisation. (Electrification & digitisation are not included as these will be used to enhance profits of existing IR network).

Up to 2,000km of strategic lines are also provided.

	Metro/ RRTS	HSR	DFC	New lines	Doubling	Strategic	Others	Total
Target line km	5,000	8,000	10,000	7,150	30,840	2,000	N/A	62,990
Cost per Km (cr)	325	250	40	30	12.5	100	--
Total cost (lakh cr)	16.25	20	4	2.15	3.86	2	1.75	50
Daily rides (millions)	40	4.87	Nil	2.56	5.52	0.72	Nil	53.7
Revenue('000cr)	82.12	200	89.55	20.81	89.76	2.91	21	506.15
Profit Passenger	20.53	64		0.48	2.07	0.034		87.15
Profits Freight, RE,	15.4	20	35.82	4.8	20.71	0.784	17.5	115.02
Profit margins	43.8%	42.0%	40.0%	25.4%	25.4%	28.1%	83.3%	39.9%
Return on Capital	2.20%	4.20%	8.95%	2.45%	5.90%	0.40%	10.00%	3.75%
Equity%	50%	20%	0%	75%	10%	100%	0%	33%
Equity (lakh cr)	8.13	4	0	1.61	0.39	2	0	16.12
Financeable debt 6%	5.99	14	5.97	0.88	3.8	0.14	2.92	33.69
Funding Shortfall (lakh cr)	2.13	2	Nil	Nil	Nil	---	Nil	---
Centre: State funding	40:60	50:50	100:00	60:40	100:00	100:00	100:00	---
Centre Equity & Shortall pa (cr)	34,200	25,000	0	8,050	3,210	16,670	0	87,130

Bengaluru will add 181km of metro rail in phase 3 by 2025

Bengaluru is a fast-growing city that is choked with traffic. 43-km metro network in phase-1 is currently being extended by 76 km by 2021 in phase-2, at a cost of Rs 26,405 crore. State has asked Centre for funding another 181km in phase-3 for Rs 30,700cr. "A 181km new metro extension and a 162-km new suburban rail service will ease pressure on building more roads, highways and flyovers. It will also reduce migration from town and villages, thereby reducing the burden on civic amenities."

Three strategic rail lines for NE industrial corridor

"All-weather connectivity to the local population, facilitate the movement of armed forces and boost tourism," says DM Rajnath Singh. Work on 3 strategic railway line, a tunnel at Sela Pass to Tawang, Hollongi airport near Itanagar and operationalisation of Pasighat airport are some of the steps taken to improve connectivity in Arunachal. 

These lines are 378km Missamari-Tenga-Tawang, 227km Pasighat-Tezu-Rupai and 249km North Lakhimpur-Bame-Silapathar. Tawang line is the most treacherous of the three, as it crosses 14,000ft at Sela Pass & has 80% tunnels. It will cost around Rs 35,000 crore link. NB. Construction for 498km Bilaspur-Manali-Leh line btw Himachal & Ladakh is underway.