Global Hydrogen Trade to Meet the 1.5°C Climate Goal

PART I – TRADE OUTLOOK FOR 2050 AND WAY FORWARD
PART II – TECHNOLOGY REVIEW OF HYDROGEN CARRIERS

By 2050, India's demand for hydrogen will be 2nd largest in the world, but a third of China's, which is 1/4 of total global demand of 650mt. So India's demand will be 1/12th or 55mt by 2050.

(NB. Demand is a projection of current status quo. It will be higher if India becomes a significant manufacturing hub.)

According to the report, India will use hydrogen mainly for steel production and ammonia. Whilst India is self-sufficient, it will export some ammonia (blended with 20% hydrogen) within the region, SE Asia and/or China. Australia will be the giant exporter to the east of India, whilst North Africa will be the giant exporter to Europe. The US will use hydrogen for methanol & transportation, and Singapore & UAE will use it for shipping.

Three factors are important for determining the cost of producing green hydrogen: Firstly, the cost of RE generation; Secondly, electrolyser capacity factor (since electrolyser capital cost is very high, 24x7 use of electrolyser is ideal); and Thirdly, curtailment level (which is the amount of power not passed through electrolyser because it is wasteful to deploy a larger capacity of electrolyser). India's electrolyser capacity factor is at global midpoint, at 43%. Curtailment levels for India are on the high side, but in the efficient range at 6-7%. Curtailed power can be stored in batteries, etc.

Over time, the cost of producing green hydrogen falls in all regions to well below $1/kg but under unfavourable conditions, it is still around $1.5/kg. Also, as electrolyser cost falls much faster, RE generation cost becomes more prominent in the cost of green hydrogen. And, India becomes even more price-competitive over time in green hydrogen production!!

It notes that India is one of the cheapest producers of hydrogen, "driven by the low capital cost and high quality of solar resources".

India's demand for electricity will keep rising sharply, due to larger population and industrial growth. Total electricity demand (including hydrogen and ammonia) will reach almost 8,000 TWh by 2050.

India will be self-sufficient but it has potential to do more. It can export surpluses as India will be the lowest-cost source of hydrogen for the region, incl China. It states: "PV potential of India is about 16,000 GWh. Land available for PV is largely limited by cropland but quality of solar resources across India's geography is excellent. More than 1/2 of useable land has a capacity factor greater than 20%!!"