CROPS production stats and India

Here are the production statistics of major crops in India which are not horticultural crops (like fruits, vegetables, spices, aromatic plants, flowers and honey).♫ First table (below) ranks crops based on area and globally competitive production. Second table (below) ranks the world's most significant crop-producing countries for all crops listed in the first table, whereas the small insert (right) aggregates for select arable crops. India stats are updated to 2020-21 (non-plantation crops) from here and world stats are here & here. Fas.usda site is nice. ♫ India is the 2nd largest producer of horticultural crops.

Major crops with good yield growth —from 2009 to 2021— are moong dal (4.7%pa) [dry beans], lentils (3.3%pa), millet (3.3%pa), chickpea (3.1%pa), maize (2.8%pa), groundnut (2.6%pa), rapeseed (2.4%pa), wheat (2.1%pa), castor (2.0%pa) and paddy rice (2.0%pa). Lesser crops doing well include small millets (4.0%pa), linseed (3.7%pa), sunflower (3.5%pa), other pulses (3.0%pa), areca nuts (2.7%pa), barley (2.5%pa) and tobacco (1.9%pa). Notable crops that have picked up yields —from 2015 to 2021— are tapioca (6.1%pa), safflower (5.2%pa), sorghum, sugarcane, pigeon pea and soya beans (> 2.2%pa).

Poorly performing crops among major crops —from 2009 to 2021—are cotton (0.4%pa), urad dal (4.85% & -1.25%pa) [dry beans], coconut (1.47%pa), cashew nut (-0.5%pa), sesame (1.85%pa), tea (1.09%pa), jute (0.9%pa), rubber (-1.77%pa) and coffee (-0.45%pa).

Other crops on decline or doing poorly are mesta (2.96% & 0.3%pa), regi (0.5% & 0.32%pa) and nigar (2.28% & -0.85%pa).

Weighted yield △ %pa is ~ 2.11% between 2009-21 ie 2009-15 & 2015-2021: 2.13% & 2.09%

Steady progress for India and China reaches its potential

Graphs of % global production (all crops incl. horticulture) for India and China (below) show very contrasting results. It is explained as follows: In the last 30 years, global production (adjusted for global yields) has risen for India and China by 34.5% & 22.5%. Harvested area has increased for both by 20.1% & 20.7%. However, World harvested area has increased by 26.0%.♫ § Yield effect (India) (right) has grown by 12.4% over 30 years (@84.1% in 2020), while Yield effect (China) has grown by 1.5% (@132.5% in 2020)!

This implies a shrinking of China's production relative to the world (@17.8% in 1993 to @16.5% in 2020), though not its competitiveness. China may have reached its potential. India's production relative to the world has risen (@10.67% in 1964 to @12.2% in 2020). India's competitiveness has risen very gradually from the depressed levels of pre-independence days.

In 2018, India's relative production peaked at 12.2% and Yield effect at 86%. IMHO, figures for India will rise to higher levels in 2023. ♫ Harvested area in 2020 for India (210.55m ha), China (180.5m ha) & World (1449.5m ha). § NB. World's globally adjusted production is the same as its harvested area!

Contrasting progression of Bangadesh and Pakistan

Yield effect graph (right) for Bangladesh & Pakistan shows a phenominal rise in Bangladesh's competitiveness and an equally pathetic fall in Pakistan's. Bangladesh started to rise from 1998 and it must have contributed immensely to GDP growth over the next 2.5 decades. From 1989-97, average yield effects of India, Bangladesh & Pakistan were similar @0.786. 0.753 & 0.786. Pakistan managed parity of sorts with India till ~2016, when India moved decisively higher. Pakistan stayed about the same from 2005-12 and then fell away.

The contrast is even starker. From 1998, Bangladesh increased the harvested area by 48.7%(!) whilst India increased it by a respectable 24.5%. In sharp contrast, Pakistan increased its harvested area by just 1.8%.§ Food availability would surely be an issue for pakistan as its population continues to grow very fast, and as of 2020, it is at the bottom of the production per capita rankings (see table, ha per million capita). [edit: I have not taken into account livestock, fisheries and possibly fodder, and Pakistan has greatly increased milk production]. § Harvested area in 2020 for Bangladesh (16.58m ha) & Pakistan (21.13m ha).

Analysis: Simple summation of production creates distortions, wherever there is a wide variation in crop yields. For example, it over-represents changes in high-yielders (eg sugarcane) and ignores big changes in premium crops like cocoa, vanilla and spices. Also, raw & processed products of the same crop give different results, eg. paddy rice & milled rice, oil palm fruit & palm oil.

Thus, in this analysis, the production of all crops is divided by the global yield of that crop. It is the same as Area x actual yield / global yield. In aggregate analysis, "Yield effect" would be a measure of agricultural performance or efficient use of cropped land. A value of 1 equals the average of the world. Eg. India performs below-average in arable crops and does above-average in plantation crops. At any level, one or two crops can distort the overall result, giving the wrong impression of a category. For example, cotton, dry beans, soya beans, sorghum & sesame with their poor yields, overshadow the results of milled rice, wheat, chickpeas and millet in the arable category. Analysis can also be wrong where within a category (say "paddy rice"), there are premium quality products like organic rice or Basmati rice, which have lower yields but much higher values.

Millet has a poor actual yield @1.43 t/ha, but it is globally very competitive. Millet is not consumed much in India, but the Centre is encouraging organic millet production because there is high export demand. OTOH, maize fares poorly relative to global yield @55%, but its actual yield @3.2 t/ha is decent wrt to wheat, rice & other cereals. Clearly, maize productivity needs to improve whilst millet needs to be primed for exports.

Low relative global yields of crops would suggest a potential for such crops to do better. Indeed, good yield accretions in maize, groundnut & rapeseed are happening, as support (eg any of irrigation, micro-irrigation, pest-free & high-yielding seeds, inputs, field demonstrations, etc) is being provided; and, dry beans, soya bean and sorghum fare badly because they are grown with scant irrigation.

Similarly, sesame yields would be much better with proper support (see below). India is the top exporter of sesame seeds but production is not keeping pace. This is because sesame is grown in poor, dry, rain-fed conditions and has low actual yield @0.49 t/ha & low relative global yield @78%.

The average yield of sesame (413 kg/ha) in India is low as compared with other countries in the world (535 kg/ha). The main reasons for low productivity of sesame are its rainfed cultivation in marginal and submarginal lands under poor management and input starved conditions. However, improved varieties and agro production technologies capable of increasing the productivity levels of sesame are now developed for different agro ecological situations in the country. A well managed crop of sesame can yield 1200 - 1500 kg/ha under irrigated and 800 - 1000 kg/ha under rainfed conditions.