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Sunday, March 17, 2019

DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Interview of Alok Kshirsagar, Mckinsey: Govt has improved business climate and reduced scope of discretionary license Raj. Though domestic investment lags FDIs, investment has picked up in the past 3-6 months. "I expect investment in infra and other sectors to play out significantly over the next 12-18 months. There’s obviously a long way to go for both growth and investments".
Govt should be credited for 3 initiatives:
1. Jam trinity (Jan Dhan bank a/c, Aadhar & mobile) has increased financial inclusion, accessed good credit customers and targeted subsidies.
2. Hiked Infra spend and realized the value in stalled/ stressed projects
3. Banking reforms esp UPI (Unified Payment Interface), restructuring of NPA/ stressed bank assets and focus on the bond market.
Stressed bank assets, if unviable, can be transferred to specialist Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARC) or if recoverable should be revived as quickly as possible. Govt can take an equity stake, arbitration can be suspended and/or additional funds provided.

Interview of CEA Arvind Subramanian (see link 1): Though much more is needed for NPA (attempts were made by RBI), key for domestic investment could be ongoing financial reforms such as Aadhar, Bankruptcy, Monetary policy committee and GST.

Interview of Unikrishnan, Thermax: a point of view (see link 2): No surprise IIP fell again - IMO, it will remain weak for some time. Consumption and investment is happening but it's not enough. Though monsoon will lift automobiles, FMCG & durables; and investment has picked up in alcohol, pharma & drugs, paints & building materials, textiles and food processing.....  looking at low cement utilization rates or the paltry steel demand (except autos), I see little happening on the ground. Not much is coming out of  GOI's road and rail capital spend. I'm afraid, core sector - which is in dire straits, eg one steel majors defaulted recently - will remain in trouble for years to come..

Interview of Peeyush Gupta, Tata Steel (see link 3): Auto, construction and rural sectors are doing particularly well. Demand will be met by domestic steel. State and Central Govt funding in infra and railways will help overall construction activity and boost steel demand.

Essar and SAIL: Essar witnessed a massive production surge (>50%) in flat steel and pellets. SAIL witnessed a big rise in finished steel (up 20+% for half year, but 50% in Sept). Though overall demand growth is more modest at 2.5% for FY17, but 7.5% for Sept, while imports are down @37% & 50% respectively (see link 4).

There’s been tangible change in the ease of doing business: Alok Kshirsagar

1 comment:

Arvind Agarwal said...

1.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/we-should-go-for-lower-gst-rates-arvind-subramanian-chief-economic-adviser/articleshow/54807691.cms
2.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/dont-think-iip-is-caught-on-back-to-normalcy-ms-unnikrishnan-thermax/articleshow/54806522.cms
3.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/steel/tata-steel-expects-steel-demand-to-bounce-back/articleshow/54850723.cms
4.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/steel/domestic-steel-consumption-growth-sees-good-improvement/articleshow/54833419.cms