Interview with Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar (comments): 20% spend on Rafale deal is to incorporate advanced 5th gen features. Tech transfer not discussed. Protocol for 2-engined MII fighter is being finalised. Meanwhile, Tejas will boost 100 in 4-5 yrs.
MAKE IN INDIA
Govt of India wishes to manufacture fighter aircraft in India, of a type that is only available from foreign vendors. Its aged planes have to be decommissioned faster than delayed Tejas can handle. In view of the high costs of just 36 Rafale about to be penned with France, India needs to find a cheaper fighter to bridge the gap.
Analysis of comparative data of fighter aircraft
Tejas, an indigenous effort, is good value but the development of advanced versions will probably be delayed. Improved F16 is a legacy platform, reasonably priced and otherwise fitted with modern gear. Rafale and Gripen are newer, intrinsically better: Rafale has superior range but very expensive, whilst Gripen is not ready. Russian FGFA prototype is expected to come before Su-30MKI India line closes. India wishes to add a Western platform to diversify its squadrons.
Winning choices
WINNER
— Legacy vs Tejas Mk 1a Tejas Mk 1a
— Tejas Mk 1a vs F16 F16
— Tejas Mk 2 vs Gripen Tejas Mk 2
— FGFA vs Su-30MKI FGFA
— AMCA vs Rafale AMCA
— F35 vs FGFA FGFA (mostly)
Also: 1) Timescales 2) Technology Transfers 3) Other benefits
Gripen, Tejas Mk1 and Su-30MKI are not considered, given above. A technology partner is required to speed up the development of advanced Tejas versions and to explore beneficial co-operation. As per the article, Rafale could be that partner to Tejas, though Gripen may be an alternative.
Options
1) Early inductions
With a delay in Tejas, F16 is inducted. Production volumes for MII dictate Rafale misses out, Tejas takes its own time and FGFA prototype (Pak-fa) is inducted directly from Russia via a lease. A larger order of FGFA is made, though the squadron mix gets over-weight.
2) Measured inductions
Rafale is chosen for MII, Tejas are inducted early in large numbers and FGFA is inducted in smaller numbers; though some Pak-fa may come early.
3, 4, 5) No advanced Tejas or Overweight in foreign or Expensive
Tejas Mk2 misses out or reduced. F16 is built in India in large numbers, affecting Rafale MII. Rafale volumes are reduced but more may be built for Navy or overseas clients. FGFA numbers are inevitably scaled down due to a shortage of funds.
Procurement cost
250 light aircraft + 150 medium + 100 heavies/ 5th gen. to be made in India.
Unit costs in millions: Teja Mk1a $40 ; Tejas Mk2 $54; F16 $90; Rafale $140; FGFA $140. Equivalent utility for: T1a 1; T2 2; F16 1.5; Raf 3; FGFA 4.
Possible options with similar utility (notwithstanding some practical difficulties):
🔆
Fighters F16 Rafale F16 + Rafale
------------ ----------------┴-------┴------┴
Tejas Mk1a 80 120 120 90 80
Tejas Mk2 100 160 0 90 130
F16 150 0 130 100 90
Rafale 0 130 120 110 90
FGFA 170 90 130 110 110
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Costs $45.9B $44.2B $51.5B $48.3B $46.3B
Options (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
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Options 1 & 3: Wrong balance between old vs modern designs; and Option 5 is better than Option 4. Both have a good mix with variety of future options, but are expensive. Option 2 has the best utility for money but relies on unrealistically large TJ2 run. If option 2 is changed to 100 TJ1a and 110 FGFA, the cost is $46.2B (less than option 5); mix becomes most modern and its utility for money is unbeatable. Importance of early development of Tejas Mk2 and AMCA cannot be over-stated.
Rafale fighter jet: France offering 16 critical technologies and lower prices as part of deal?
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