http://www.livemint.com/Politics/bJXxja7w4CEULowONK0UgO/Nonfarm-jobs-on-the-rise-in-India-McKinsey-report.html
Jobs growth between 2011 and 2015
Between 2011 and 2015, the number of agricultural jobs reduced by 26 million while the number of non-farm ones rose by 33 million. This was especially driven by the creation of jobs between 2013 and 2015. It should be read with a proviso: Jobs information is not very clear & 86% are employed in the informal sector and people can switch from one to the other.
Another stat says the labour force participation rate fell from 55.5% in 2011 to 52.4% in 2015. Looking deeper, more people have stayed back to study and women have opted out of working, as they don't need the extra money.
Net gain of 8 m jobs or growth of 1.3%pa was seen in trade & hospitality, construction, transport and education. Rest saw a fall (eg agriculture, mining). Mining was particularly affected. No net jobs created in manufacturing.
2011-13: 17m out of farms & 11m non-farm jobs = ▼ 6m
2013-15: 9m out of farms & 22m non-farm jobs = ▲ 13m
Jobs growth under NDA
According to the McKinsey Global Institute report, the so-called gig economy (or increase in independent work opportunities available), government spending and the consequent creation of jobs, and increased entrepreneurial activity have created gainful employment for between 20 million and 26 million people between 2014 and 2017 (based on surveys and estimation):
1. Infrastructure & urbanization: Centre (1.5-2.5m) & NREGA (0.65m)
2. Automation: IT/BPO (0.6m)
3. New digital & self-employment: Tech (0.8m), MUDRA (17m), another small lending (2.25m)
India will lose jobs to automation—52% at threat—but it can gain from new roles like cybersecurity, mobile app development, new user interfaces, social media, data science, and platform engineering.
Jobs can be created by targeted govt programs (esp. in industrial clusters, MII, tourism), removing hurdles to investment & innovation and bringing people into the formal sector.
FULL PDF
http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Employment%20and%20Growth/A%20new%20emphasis%20on%20gainful%20employment%20in%20India/Indias-labour-market-A-new-emphasis-on-gainful-employment.ashx
McKinsey write-up
According to the report, India has gained from global engagement, even if this resulted in disruption. Shift from farm jobs—ie. farm workers—to non-farm jobs has created higher paying jobs with better working conditions. Opportunities to work part-time—eg. construction—brings income security in times of need.
1. Govt investment in infrastructure, education and health creates better-paying jobs as compared to farm workers. So there is a net benefit whilst investing towards a competitive edge in trading & manufacturing.
2. Automation can affect IT and business outsourcing but if skilled correctly can be a net gain of 3 million jobs till 2025.
3. Self-employment arising out of digitization has created 18-22 million jobs in last 3 years. These are better paying and more formal than before.
FULL ARTICLE
The debate highlights a lack of timely and reliable data in India to identify significant trends in the labour market. More broadly, we see the need for a new emphasis in India on the notion of “gainful employment” for the 460 million-strong workforce to focus on improved quality of work and the income derived from it. Gainful employment covers a range of issues, including the quantity and type of work done by people already in employment, growth in labour productivity, higher earnings, and aspects of work quality such as greater safety, cleanliness, flexibility, income security, and intellectual challenge.
Labour-force participation and the number of jobs do not in themselves measure gainful employment. Declining labour participation may indicate that more young people have stayed in education or that more women from households once in extreme poverty are entering the middle class, for example. Likewise, supplementary income opportunities (such as temporary work on a construction project or selling home food produce through a digital platform) may not increase the number of jobs, but they may raise the income level, choice, flexibility, and security of an underemployed worker engaged in low-productivity work.
Several global trends that are affecting economies around the world could lead to more opportunities for gainful employment, even as they pose significant challenges for India. Three are particularly relevant to India:
To bridge India’s infrastructure gaps, the government has raised public investment in roads, railways, rural development, power, telecom, housing, and “soft” areas of health care and education, creating work opportunities for an estimated seven million workers, at wages that are 70 percent higher than for average farm workers.
Rapid advances in automation technologies are affecting India’s information technology and business process outsourcing sectors. These sectors have remained net job creators, and the industry estimates that companies could hire up to three million more workers by 2025, provided they can acquire the skills to meet changing needs.
The global rise of independent work and micro-entrepreneurship, aided by new digital ecosystems, is mirrored in India, where they are providing new work opportunities with better pay and links to organized value chains, including in parts of the country less covered by formal labor markets. Our initial estimates are that the rapidly growing sectors of cab-hailing platforms, e-commerce, digital financial services through networks of banking correspondents, and lending for micro0entrepreneurship and self-help groups have improved income opportunities for 18 to 22 million workers in about the past three years
For this new emphasis on gainful employment that we suggest, India will need to collect more frequent, timely, and relevant labour market data to understand trends. But the issue is a policy focus as much as a data concern. Some segments of India’s workforce have been reaping clear benefits from the resumption of strong GDP growth, the increasing shift into non-farm employment, and the country’s high-tech prowess—but tens of millions more could also do better. Indians aspire to higher pay, better and more productive working conditions, and safer, cleaner, and more stimulating work. A new emphasis on gainful employment would help Indians meet these aspirations. It will require a conscious effort on the part of the government, including in terms of measuring employment more holistically, targeting spending on initiatives, and changing regulation of private-sector investment and innovation to remove barriers to gainful employment. While these and other possible policy steps are challenging, the effort and energy required to put them in place will be amply rewarded if they achieve their end goal of a more fulfilled, better rewarded, and more productive Indian workforce.
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/a-new-emphasis-on-gainful-employment-in-india
No comments:
Post a Comment