Was there a Mamata Banerjee wave in last WB assembly election? Well, no one spoke of it beforehand, and yet TMC bagged 211 of the 294 seats. One paper wrote "Mamata wave" in headlines to express its bemusement. A 7.5% swing from Left to TMC had passed off silently; probably TMC galvanised support and Left lost support due to the ill-judged alliance.

Like WB election, a cobbled coalition is taking on a dominant player in UP. SP-CON doesn't have raw numbers to be a majority and relies on the BJP losing support. Respective strengths can be seen thus: NDTV gave TMC a 60% chance & Left-Con 40% chance of a majority. In UP, NDTV has given BJP 55-65% chance, SP-CON 35%. This is the starting point.

As SP-CON is playing on a poorer wicket, it must perform spotlessly. Reports suggest a rebellion in SP ranks, and SP Govt has lower traction than say MB govt in WB. If the neutrals sense a hostile minority takeover (from SP-CON), where they are on the losing side, then they will decamp from the 3rd party to the strongest opposition, ie. BJP would attract rest of the votes barring vote bank of the alliance. If Modi's govt was not up to mark, then BSP benefits. Ground reports must be seen in this light.

Why senior journalists are saying BJP will win UP elections