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Contrary to the chatter, the decline in turnout rates in the first 2 phases did not hold in the next phase. In fact, the 3rd phase saw the highest-ever turnout in states such as Gujarat, Kerala and Karnataka, all of which have completed their voting. Experts feel the turnout in 2019 will be high and match levels of 2014. The writer speculates on which party it favours.
The upsurge in voting in 2014 had favoured the upper caste-class matrix and led to huge victory margins for the NDA. The poor and Muslims turned out less in comparison. The chart (see below) from 2014 dataset shows what this meant. NDA won 67 out of the 70 seats (96%) where the voter turnout increased by over 15%. It won 125 out of 145 seats (86%) where turnout increased btw 10-15%; and won 125 out of 267 seats (46%) where turnout increased by up to 10%. In contrast, NDA fared poorly at 34% strike rate in the remaining 81 seats.
An interesting pre-poll survey in March 2019 (by Lokniti-CSDS) indicates that voters who are most likely to turn out are strongly inclined to vote for NDA. And, while Modi backers are enthusiastic about voting, others like Muslims, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes are less likely to turn out this time. The writer believes the reason is that cadre-based parties like BJP and DMK are geared up to bringing out their supporters, and poorly organised parties like Congress are not. There are other reasons not mentioned in the article such as different levels of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with governance, political vision and credibility to deliver, positive sentiment created by the alliances during the election campaign, etc.
BJP leaders talk of a pro-incumbency feel in the country. More precisely, the LS 2019 election is seeing a positive momentum backed by stronger voting intentions for NDA (ie active pro-incumbency) and a negative momentum and lower voting intentions for the opposition (ie passive anti-incumbency). Pollsters are describing a stronger presence of this phenomenon (eg. lower Muslim voting, lower voting from opposition strongholds) and BJP is also blooming in other geographies. In the circumstances, a much higher seat tally can be expected for NDA for 2019 Lok Sabha!!
April 28th, 2019
Contrary to the chatter, the decline in turnout rates in the first 2 phases did not hold in the next phase. In fact, the 3rd phase saw the highest-ever turnout in states such as Gujarat, Kerala and Karnataka, all of which have completed their voting. Experts feel the turnout in 2019 will be high and match levels of 2014. The writer speculates on which party it favours.
The upsurge in voting in 2014 had favoured the upper caste-class matrix and led to huge victory margins for the NDA. The poor and Muslims turned out less in comparison. The chart (see below) from 2014 dataset shows what this meant. NDA won 67 out of the 70 seats (96%) where the voter turnout increased by over 15%. It won 125 out of 145 seats (86%) where turnout increased btw 10-15%; and won 125 out of 267 seats (46%) where turnout increased by up to 10%. In contrast, NDA fared poorly at 34% strike rate in the remaining 81 seats.
An interesting pre-poll survey in March 2019 (by Lokniti-CSDS) indicates that voters who are most likely to turn out are strongly inclined to vote for NDA. And, while Modi backers are enthusiastic about voting, others like Muslims, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes are less likely to turn out this time. The writer believes the reason is that cadre-based parties like BJP and DMK are geared up to bringing out their supporters, and poorly organised parties like Congress are not. There are other reasons not mentioned in the article such as different levels of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with governance, political vision and credibility to deliver, positive sentiment created by the alliances during the election campaign, etc.
BJP leaders talk of a pro-incumbency feel in the country. More precisely, the LS 2019 election is seeing a positive momentum backed by stronger voting intentions for NDA (ie active pro-incumbency) and a negative momentum and lower voting intentions for the opposition (ie passive anti-incumbency). Pollsters are describing a stronger presence of this phenomenon (eg. lower Muslim voting, lower voting from opposition strongholds) and BJP is also blooming in other geographies. In the circumstances, a much higher seat tally can be expected for NDA for 2019 Lok Sabha!!
April 28th, 2019
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