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The seat projection shown below is given by an optimistic Congress fan. It seems unbelievable, as of now, that Congress and its allies can get as many as 213 seats. Even then, to win a majority, they will need support from "Others" in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and J&K. Total for this Grand Alliance is 303. A poor showing by Mahagatbhandan in UP (say down by 25 in the stated tally) will require bringing in other parties from Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha. But these parties may prefer to bargain with the BJP combine. So a 25-30 seat loss can wreak havoc to the arithmetic of the Grand Alliance.
From BJP's point of view, where can Congress plus lose 100 seats to give BJP+ the slimmest of a majority? Direct bipolar contests with Congress are found in BJP heartlands in Madya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan; and North India, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and North Karnataka. A repeat of LS 2014 can happen if Congress support erodes further. Strong BJP alliances will likely ward off Congress alliances in Maharashtra and Bihar, while BJP regional alliance in Tamil Nadu is fighting a rearguard battle and may emerge with a decent tally.
BJP's route to a majority will surely come from reducing the stated tallies of Mahagatbhandan in UP and TMC in West Bengal, where Congress can at best, be a spoiler for either side. Opinion polls in early April project the BJP combine at 280. It should be the low end of the projections as BJP support has been on the rise. A big upside is expected due to reports that voting for BJP in Western UP is holding up better than expectations. There is also lower turnout of Muslim voters and disunity in Mahagatbhandan, TMC support in North WB is haemorrhaging, and a Modi wave is present in Karnataka. Core BJP support is evident from a strong turnout in Gujarat and heavily supported rallies in Rajasthan. Experts are also predicting a major breakthrough in Odisha and a gain of one or more LS seats in Kerala.
Signs of opposition disarray are visible in many incidents. There is blatant ballot rigging and violence by TMC cadre in West Bengal. In Delhi, Congress has refused to ally with AAP party, perhaps because it is looking beyond LS elections and wanting to capture lost ground for 2020 assembly polls. TMC ruled WB state govt needs to go post-elections, and there are rumours that (seemly) unpopular state governments will topple if Congress suffers heavy defeats in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
Dr. Praveen Patil: 25 Apr 2019
Massive meltdown for the opposition has begun everywhere. Karyakartas are abandoning posts, booth level infrastructure is vanishing, opposition leaders have stopped spending money. Sympathetic (to opposition) local reporters have gone into slumber! Just entering wave territory.
Our reading suggests that most of the opposition is stunned because they expected MGB in UP, TMC in Bengal and INC-JDS in Karnataka to perform well in the first 3 phases. Nobody (including us) expected BJP to crush the entire opposition so strongly in these 3 states.
https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1121338280207769600
2014 2019 Cong' BJP+ project'
proj' for BJP+ low - mid - high
313 178 280 302 335
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BJP's Heartlands (341 seats) 297 (87%) 151 235 241 263
Madhya Pradesh + Gujarat + Rajasthan (80 seats) 78 (98%) 42 65 66 69
Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) 73 (91%) 20 40 45 55
Maharashtra + Bihar + Goa (90 seats) 75 (83%) 51 67 70 72
North India + Jhark + Chhat + Karn (20/ 28) (91 seats) 71 (78%) 38 60 60 67
Other regions (111 seats) 5 (4.5%) 15 31 43 51
Old Mysore (8/28) + Tamil Nadu + Pudu. (48 seats) 3 5 10 15 18
West Bengal + Odisha (63 seats) 2 10 21 28 33
Rest (91 seats) 11 12 17 18 21
Congress 44 150 84 72 53
April 26th, 2019
Congress fan's projection:
Opinion polls in early April 2019 Congress + BJP + Others
Congress = 84 133 280 130
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BJP's Heartlands (341 seats) 68 232 41
Madhya Pradesh + Gujarat + Rajasthan (80 seats) 15 65 0
Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) 3 40 37
Maharashtra + Bihar + Goa (90 seats) 23 67 0
North India + Jhark + Chhat + Karn (20/ 28) (91 seats) 27 60 4
Other regions (111 seats) 41 31 39
Old Mysore Karn (8/28) + Tamil Nadu + Pudu. (48 seats)38 10 0
West Bengal + Odisha (63 seats) 3 21 39
Rest (91 seats) 24 17 50
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