Came April 2019 and Indian elections have entered the fiercest phase. Do or die may be an apt description, as stakes are of the highest import. On the result lies the continuing redemption of the country with an unwavering leadership, or a relapse into a paralytic past of only five years ago. Arranged on the sides are a disciplined party with a leader of world-acclaim and an inchoate group of formations with no acknowledged leader. The latter struts about like a headless chicken with only personal aspirations on display. With little time left, a victory for Modi and the BJP awaits only the confirmation!
In this uneven contest, Prime Minister Modi is well ahead and has adequately established his ascendancy. Ever since election fever started, fear is writ on the collective faces of Congress and its cohorts. Some sixty years ago Nehru said, “Elections bring out the worst in us”. What a tragic irony, that Congress leader in Nehru genealogy, spearheads in the muck-raking and brings out the very worst in Indian politics. As of now, like the last time, BJP's tally is in 3 digits and is closing in towards 300 plus seats, while Congress has barely in 2 digits and is falling below 90!
What are the high stakes? Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India was a leader of unimpeachable integrity. His intellect, of the highest calibre, was made for the vision to modernise India. He brought forth generations of bureaucrats and technocrats to move the country forward. In Foreign Affairs, he had none to compare with. Leaders who followed him were not a match to his calibre nor spotless in character. A leader who steered through long-delayed economic reforms in the early nineties was Prime Minister Narasimha Rao. He was ably advised by the Finance Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. India saw a sea change that enabled Vajpayee to build a new India.
Entrance of Modi
These highlights apart, the intervening years were lacklustre in development and in securing foreign esteem. The most debilitating canker that afflicted the country after Nehru was the spread of corruption, consequent to the unfailing loss of personal standards and patriotism. Corruption had clawed its way down until it filled every pore of public life. The last five years of the UPA saw policy paralysis followed by coma in administration, foreign affairs and national growth. The polity lost its vitality and its will to fight. A sense of despair and forlornness became all-pervasive. Modi ridiculed the senselessness and questioned the thinking: When an enemy comes into your house and beats you up, instead of hitting back and sending him away, why did you run to America, weep and beg that country to do what you should have done yourself?
The Modi Surge
At that juncture, Modi came as a tonic to the prevailing mood—a restorative to the demoralized India of 2014. He changed the mindset and gave it a sense of purpose. The state of vibrancy that he had in his own remarkable mind, he imparted to the polity. He and his lieutenants built up a cadre of leaders who imbued it with fresh dynamism. He became not domineering but primus inter pares, leading not by edicts but by himself being spotless. The first casualty was corruption. High-end swindles were shown the exit path. Other changes of no less consequence are the range of development initiatives that are transforming the face of India.
Modi roadshow on April 25th, 2019 at Varanasi
Before the approaching election juggernaut, the opposition is in disarray. As Congress becomes increasingly aware of un-winnability of the contest, it has taken to making fake pronouncements. Its leader lost face when the Chief Justice told him where to stand. A few of the PM aspirants in the opposition are yet to descend to firm ground. Some have taken refuge in the supposed failings of electric voting machines (EVMs). Yet others refuse to acknowledge the direction of the strong gusts.
Changing Allegiances in States
Odisha has begun the rout of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and welcomed the advent of BJP. BJD took 20 of the 21 seats in 2014. Now it stands at around 5. As is West Bengal, which is on the verge of putting Trinamool Congress on the back burner. The latter won 37 seats out of 42 at the last election and may get 19 this time. Uttar Pradesh which gave 73 to NDA last time may drop to 60 this time. BJP and the NDA are opening their account in the South. Tamil Nadu gave 2 seats earlier and may lavish the NDA with 18 seats. Telugu Desam Party of Chandrababu Naidu is getting routed by YRC in Andhra Pradesh and may rejoin with NDA post-polls. Telangana is fully in the grasp of the incumbent CM, which means it will go nowhere unless it supports NDA in a post-poll alliance. In Karnataka, NDA will have the same number of seats and in Kerala, BJP will establish a toehold with a seat or two for the very first time. Communists, masters at piggybacking on others, will dwindle from 3 states to a single state, with 6 in Kerala. It is clear that the South together with East India will more than compensate for the minor loss in UP brought about by the highly contrived coalition, along with a small correction to BJP's tally that may happen in the rest of the country.
Concluding Remarks
Rather astutely, two days ago Modi crafted a new lexicon in the political vocabulary– “Pro-Incumbency Wave”. Modi indeed is the most immersed in the information flow of the election. He has surrounded himself also with the best of talent to dispense the advice dispassionately. To name a few – Arun Jaitley, Piyush Goyal, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman and Gurumurthy; and not to forget is the benignly ruthless Amit Shah for party matters, who is said to use GPS for monitoring work. The result – confidence about victory is so certain, swearing in details are being readied, and new plans are being mapped out: a 100 day plan is for the immediate term, a 3 year plan to mark the 75th anniversary of independence, a 5 year plan for the second term ending in 2024, and a 10 year plan for a stunning $10 trillion economy by 2030.
As I write today, there are still 20 days left for the surge to culminate into a wave by May 2019.
April 27th, 2019
S. Sivathasan – Advance and Retreat
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