Keys
Low income groups - social security, direct benefit; stable food prices; sanitation and drinking water; subsidized or affordable power; health, education, housing.
Farmers - double income or guaranteed income, much higher agricultural production.
Economy - high growth of 8+%, moderate inflation and check on fiscal deficit, good currency.
Middle Class - many want lower direct taxes.
Reforms
None of the reforms are a major problem.
1. GST is hugely positive on prices, growth and taxes. Admin issues only.
2. DBT, Aadhaar & IT/ Telecom, is hugely positive on subsidy reform incl PDS, banking, social security, digital services outreach, monitoring outcomes. Will take time to realize benefits.
3. Corporate tax is a done deal for new businesses. Not an issue from implementation point of view.
4. Labour reforms are highly positive for economy but politically damaging in the short term. But in longer term, all will be forgotten as people move on.
5. Agricultural reforms - necessity, efforts must deliver.
6. Land reform - higher payouts, not so necessary. Courts are increasingly pro-active.
7. PSU reforms - each ministry should reform working practices within.
8. Ease & Cost of doing business is very complicated and diverse - this is surely taking place. Necessity, as it is one route to prosperity along with innovation/ risk taking and skilled manpower.
The Financial Express
1 comment:
By the end of 2014, NDA had lost its popular edge. Opposition had united successfully on the Land bill issue. In Delhi polls, the rural vote abandoned the BJP. Bihar was a repeat, made worse by two failed monsoons.
Hence Govt backed off the Land bill and did a reappraisal. Budget of 2016-17 shows a clear shift of priorities towards lower income sectors and farmers.
NDA poll strategy is to win over the rural vote; to rake up high growth, moderate inflation and low fiscal deficits; to keep adding new infra and improving existing facilities; and to deliver better services.
Keys
Low income groups - social security, direct benefit; stable food prices; sanitation and drinking water; subsidized or affordable power; health, education, housing as per need.
Farmers - double income or guaranteed income, much higher agricultural production.
Economy - high growth of 8+%, moderate inflation and check on fiscal deficit, good currency.
Middle Class - many want lower direct taxes.
Infra
Jobs
Mobility
Better delivery of services
Safety and security
Causes for its key vote banks
Recreation, healthy environment, good living spaces
Reforms
PMO has sequenced reforms rather than go for anything dramatic or "big bang". Success has lead to greater willingness for reforms, for example:
"DBT/ Aadhaar has successfully targeted benefits and saved tax monies. Aadhaar card is now used do banking, secure benefits from state schemes, access remote services, etc. It serves as an internal ID for monitoring outcomes."
As confidence grows and Govt successfully launches new schemes, it seems none of the proposed reforms (detailed below) will be a major problem.
Keys
1. GST is hugely positive on prices, growth and taxes. Admin issues only.
2. DBT, Aadhaar & IT/ Telecom, is hugely positive on subsidy reform incl PDS, banking, social security, digital services outreach, monitoring outcomes. Will take time to fully realize benefits.
3. Corporate tax is a done deal for new businesses that don't want exemptions. Ending of special exemptions, anti-avoidance laws from next year and revisions in double tax treaties have been set in motion. Not an issue from implementation point of view.
4. Labour reforms are highly positive for the economy but politically damaging in the short term. But in the longer term, all will be forgotten as people move on.
5. Agricultural reforms - necessity, efforts must deliver the feel good factor, eg. soil card for higher productivity, irrigation for two crops, drip irrigation for conserving water on water guzzlers like sugar crops, unifying AMC for better price realization. Taxation of excess agricultural income is a major undertaking.
6. Land reform - higher payouts, not so necessary. Courts are increasingly pro-active.
7. PSU reforms - ideally, each ministry should reform working practices to deliver expected, high outcomes.
8. Ease & Cost of doing business is very complicated and diverse - this is surely taking place. Necessity, as it is one route to prosperity along with innovation/ risk taking and skilled manpower.
9. Encourage innovation and risk taking - necessity. Start-ups, also helps to stop emigration of businesses abroad. IPR protection. Excellent or modern research facilities. Pooling talent from universities. Higher and better management of public research. To buy in to, or sponsor, private innovative products.
10. Skill training, education reforms
11. Social reforms, legal reforms, environment norms, vehicle & road safety measures, power distribution reforms, etc - a lot can be done.
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